409
FXUS61 KAKQ 121923
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
323 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pushes off the coast tonight through Thursday,
bringing a warmup to the region to end the week. A cold front
pushes through Friday night with a chance for a few showers and
storms. Dry with seasonable temperatures over the weekend,
followed by a hot and mainly dry pattern next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key message:

- Partly sunny and seasonable this afternoon, mainly dry.

An upper level trough remains well off to the NE this afternoon,
with a subtle/weak shortwave still expected to brush across
northern portions of the area later this afternoon into this
evening. Skies range from partly to mostly sunny across the
region this afternoon. Temperatures are generally in the upper
70s to lower 80s (slightly cooler along the immediate coast),
and will climb a couple more degrees through this afternoon.
Still cannot rule out a stray rain shower through this evening,
mainly across far northwestern portions of the area, but overall
rain chances remain low. Partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight
with lows mostly from 60-65F (slightly warmer SE coastal areas).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected Thursday into Friday with mainly
  dry weather, followed by a chance for storms Friday night.

- Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures return to start
  off the weekend.

High pressure moves offshore Thursday with temps warming into
the mid 80s to around 90F (warmest inland) under partly to mostly
sunny skies. Lows Thursday night will generally be in the 60s.

An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds E,
though the trend continues to depict the upper trough across
eastern Canada to be a little stronger, keeping the core of the
upper ridge stays well off to our W/SW over the Plains states.
At the surface, high pressure will remain centered along the
East Coast, gradually sliding offshore. The forecast for Friday
remains on track with deep mixing and 850 mb temperatures rising
to near 20C. Highs Friday look to average in the mid 90s well
inland across central VA/metro RIC, with upper 80s to lower 90s
closer to the coast. Latest NBM probabilities show a ~60 to 70%
chance for high temperatures greater than 95F on Friday
centered around and just north of the Richmond metro. However,
given the continental origin of this airmass, dew points
continue to be fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s, which
will act to mitigate the heat index from being much warmer than
the actual air temp. Near the coast, dew points will be a
little higher, but given a rather weak pressure gradient, winds
likely back to the SE and keep actual air temperatures held in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Advisories look unlikely at
this time, with peak heat indices in the mid- upper 90s (perhaps
reaching 100F in isolated locations across the Richmond metro)
Friday afternoon.

A cold front drops S across the local area Friday evening into
Friday night with at least a chance for showers/storms possible
(highest across N/NE portions of the FA). Will also have to
watch the potential for a stronger storm or two potentially
slipping into far northeastern portions of the area. SPC
currently has a marginal risk for severe storms just north of
the local area on Friday. Lows on Friday night will range from
the 60s to near 70F (warmest SE).

The upper level trough moves offshore Saturday with the center
of > 1020mb sfc high pressure moving from the Great Lakes to New
England before sliding off the Mid Atlantic later in the weekend.
Overall, it will be a pleasant start to the weekend with dew
pts falling back into the 50s for most of the area with highs in
the low- mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry for the weekend with temperatures close to normal for mid
  June.

- Hot and mainly dry weather returns early next week, likely
  persisting through the week.

Slightly warmer Sunday as high pressure shifts offshore,
temperatures will range from the upper 80s to around 90F inland
and low to mid 80s closer to the coast.

The models continue to depict the upper level ridge building
across the East Coast next week. The 12Z/12 ECMWF continues the
trend of being the strongest and most persistent with the ridge.
The 12Z/12 GFS has also come into better agreement with the
ECMWF (compared to previous runs) also showing a stronger and
more persistent ridge. Highs rise to 90-95F Monday inland
(mid/upper 80s along the coast) and a more widespread low-mid
90s on Tuesday. While it still does not appear to be that humid
(dew pts in 60s), WPC probs are ~50% across interior sections
of the local area at reaching heat indices at or above 100F by
Tue- Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions to prevail through the 18Z TAF period. Skies are
variably cloudy this afternoon, with VFR CIGs running around
4-6k ft. Skies become mostly evening later this evening into
tonight. Variable winds will take on a south to southwest
direction at inland sites and south to southeast direction
closer to the coast.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with mainly dry weather
through most of Friday. A cold front crosses the area Friday
evening into Friday night with a low chance for late
day/evening showers or storms possible (best chance NE of KRIC
to KSBY). VFR Saturday into early next week as high pressure
returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions likely persist through late week before a
  cold front crosses the waters late Friday into Saturday.

Weak synoptic flow will allow sea breeze circulations to
augment periods of SE/onshore flow this afternoon and again
Thursday afternoon, generally SE 10-15 kt. Winds diminish
somewhat to 5-10 kt during the evening and overnight hours. The
pressure gradient tightens on Friday ahead of an approaching
cold front but winds are expected to stay in the 10-15 kt range
in the pre-frontal southerly flow. The front moves across the
waters late Friday night into Saturday morning with winds
becoming N and increasing to 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt. A
period of SCA headlines will likely accompany the frontal
passage into the first half of Saturday for the Ches Bay, lower
James River, and Currituck Sound. Confidence in seeing sustained
SCA conditions offshore is lower given the higher wind
thresholds for the ocean waters. Waves in the bay will average
1-2 ft through the period with 2-3 ft possible during periods of
stronger flow through this evening and again Thursday and late
Friday. Seas will average 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft likely during the
stronger surge late Friday into Saturday. Offshore wind
direction will tend to limit seas but a period of 4-5 ft is
possible during this timeframe (especially N and out near 20
nm). Quiet marine conditions return and are likely to persist
well into next week with strong high pressure aloft lingering
over the region.

Low rip current risk continues for all beaches through Thursday.
By Friday, a tightening pressure gradient will help to increase
near-shore wave height and longer period swells for the
northern beaches where a moderate rip risk my be required.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are not likely for most places Friday, but are
listed below as RIC could be close:

- RIC: 99 (1926)
- ORF: 97 (1945)
- SBY: 97 (1945)
- ECG: 98 (1944)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...JDM/RHR
CLIMATE...