557
FXUS61 KAKQ 101946
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
346 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough lingers over the area through Tuesday with a
few isolated showers possible tonight across the north and isolated
to scattered storms likely near the coast on Tuesday. High pressure
moves in from mid to late week with a warmup expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Key message:

- A few isolated showers are possible across northern portions of
the area this evening into early tonight.

Current surface analysis depicts an upper level trough moving
towards the East Coast with a surface trough over MD and N VA. Temps
as of 300 PM were mainly in the low-mid 80s with dew points in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs today a degree or two warmer.

The upper level trough (and surface trough) continue to move towards
the local area this evening while a weak surface low develops over
central VA. CAMs show just spotty shower development, mainly over
the NW by late afternoon. However, with low dew points across the
area and shallow cloud moisture depth, don`t expect much to reach
the ground before the evening. As such have only a slight chance for
showers by late afternoon across the far NW. By tonight, as the
upper level trough tracks closer to the area, along with weak sfc
convergence as a weak surface low and cold front moves through, PoPs
increase to ~30% across the N, with lower chances S. Models show
some instability closer to the coast tonight, however, confidence in
thunder is quite low. As such, have removed thunder from the
forecast. Showers gradually taper off from W to E overnight with
clouds clearing late and overnight lows in the mid 50s NW to the mid
60s SE. Total QPF of only a couple hundredths of an inch of rain is
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered storms develop along the sea breeze Tuesday.
A few storms may be strong to severe across far southeast Virginia
and northeast North Carolina.

An upper level trough lingers through Tue before moving offshore.
Meanwhile, a surface trough is expected to be centered across NE NC
into far SE VA. A sea breeze is expected to develop by late Tue
morning into early Tue afternoon and gradually push inland through
the day. Behind it, dew points in the mid 60s (potentially higher)
are expected. These higher dew points combined with modest mid-upper
level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C in the 850-500 mb region should allow
for MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Meanwhile, 0-6km shear of 30-40 kt
exists (highest across NE NC) with most of the shear above 700 mb.
The combination of MLCAPE, shear, and modest lapse rates should
allow for some strong to locally severe storms to develop along the
sea breeze as early as around noon and continuing through the
afternoon. Small to marginally severe hail as well as strong to
severe downbursts are the main threats. As such, SPC has introduced
a marginal risk for severe storms across this area (extreme SE VA
and NE NC). Storms taper off by late afternoon into the evening as
the seabreeze pushes farther inland while the upper level trough
moves E. Isolated to scattered storms will also be possible across
the rest of the coastline and especially the Eastern Shore Tue
afternoon, however, shear and instability are lower in these areas
with general thunderstorms expected. Total QPF of ~0.25" (locally
1"+) is expected across extreme SE VA/NE NC with mainly <0.2"
elsewhere.

Highs Tue will be cooler in the upper 70s NW to the mid 80s SE.
High pressure moves in Wed with drier weather and highs in the
mid 80s. Lows in the mid 50s W to low-mid 60s E Tue night and
lower 60s W to mid-upper 60s E Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with highs
reaching the mid 90s by Friday.

- Mostly dry into early next week with only a slight chance for a
few evening showers and storms Friday and afternoon
showers and storms Saturday.

A ridge builds over the East Coast from mid-late week while surface
high pressure gradually moves offshore. This will allow for dry
conditions and a warming trend from mid-late week as highs
increase from the upper 80s to lower 90s Thu to the mid 90s on
Fri (lower 90s along the coast). While temps will be hot by Fri,
dew points in the 60s will act to mitigate the heat index from
being much warmer than the actual air temp. That being said, we
could be looking at heat indices in the mid-upper 90s on Fri
afternoon. A cold front moves through Fri night with a few
isolated showers or storms possible along it Fri evening across
NE portions of the FA. A few additional storms are possible
across the S Sat afternoon. The upper level ridge builds back in
to the East Coast this weekend into early next week with warm
temps continuing. Highs in the mid-upper 80s NE to the lower 90s
SW Sat, low-mid 80s E to the upper 80s to ~90F W Sun, and upper
80s to lower 90s Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

SCT CU have developed across the area this afternoon with VFR
CIGs (5000-8000 ft). Expect SCT-BKN CU to linger into tonight
with isolated light showers developing across N portions of the
FA late this afternoon into tonight, moving E with time.
Confidence in any showers reaching RIC or SBY is too low to go
with more than VCSH in the TAFs. Additionally, while there is a
non-zero chance of thunder tonight, confidence is quite low. As
such, have kept VCTS out of the TAFs. Clouds clear late tonight
into Tue morning before CU increase in coverage by mid-late
morning (especially along the coast). Isolated to scattered
storms are expected to develop by early Tue afternoon along a
sea breeze across far SE VA/NE NC and the Eastern Shore. Storms
may produce small to marginally severe hail as well as strong
winds and IFR VIS. The best chance is at ORF/ECG. Any
showers/storms taper off by Tue evening. In addition to the
convection, CIGs may drop to MVFR briefly Tue morning into early
Tue afternoon along the coast (potentially impacting
ORF/PHF/ECG). Winds were generally W 5-10 kt this afternoon.
Winds become onshore (due to a seabreeze) at ORF and perhaps
ECG/PHF later this afternoon before becoming light and variable
tonight. Winds become N 5-10 kt Tue, becoming E (due to the
seabreeze) along the coast Tue afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with dry weather Tue
night through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Brief increase of S-SE winds to 15 kt this evening ahead of a weak
cool front.

- Winds turn northerly later tonight.

- Generally quiet marine conditions expected through Thursday before
an increase of S-SE winds on Thu night and Friday.

Winds will turn south to southeast late this afternoon into this
evening ahead of a weak cold front/trough. Latest high resolution
models suggest a bump up of winds especially across the southern
Chesapeake Bay and adjacent coastal waters to near small craft
advisory conditions (18kt). The high res ensemble guidance shows
about a 60% probability of 18kt winds. However, these high res
models tend to be a tad high with winds in the lower bay. As such,
will increase winds late this afternoon and this evening to 15 kt
with a few gusts to 20 kt, but keep out any SCA.

Winds turn northerly tonight behind this feature. Will continue with
10-15 kt winds through Tuesday, then decrease these winds as high
pressure builds overhead. High pressure moves offshore by the end of
the week, likely causing S-SE winds to increase once again to near
SCA.

Waves generally 2 feet or less through much of the week. Seas will
likely build to 2 to 4 feet over the ocean later in the week as the
high shifts offshore.

Despite winds becoming slightly onshore on Tuesday across the
southern waters, the rip current risk will remain low through
Wednesday with surf heights of 1-2 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MRD