044
FXUS61 KAKQ 130659
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
259 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be centered off the coast today, bringing a
warmup to the region to end the week. A cold front pushes
through Friday night with a chance for a few showers and storms.
Dry with seasonable temperatures over the weekend, followed by
a hot and mainly dry pattern next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 810 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key message:

- Decreasing clouds and a touch milder overnight. Lows mainly to
  range through the 60s.

Latest upper analysis showing the closed low to the north
opening up and lifting across Atlantic Canada this evening, with
low amplitude ridging building over the mid-Atlantic in its
wake. A weak shortwave was noted on early evening GOES WV/IR
satellite imagery crossing the mid-south region into the
southeast at the base of a southern stream trough that remains
in place over the east-central gulf coast. At the surface, a
weak surface trough passed to our north this evening, with broad
1016+mb sfc high pressure building over the region from the
west.

Lingering mid to high clouds remain in place over the southern
half of the area, though will gradually thin out over the next
few hours. Mostly clear north to partly cloudy south overnight.
Early morning lows will be a few degrees milder on average,
generally 60-65F for most, though slightly warmer SE coastal
areas in light onshore flow and some lingering mid-level
cloudiness.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected Thursday into Friday with mainly
  dry weather, followed by a chance for storms Friday night.

- Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures return to start
  off the weekend.

High pressure moves offshore Thursday with temps warming into
the mid 80s to around 90F (warmest inland) under partly to mostly
sunny skies. Lows Thursday night will generally be in the 60s.

An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds E,
though the trend continues to depict the upper trough across
eastern Canada to be a little stronger, keeping the core of the
upper ridge stays well off to our W/SW over the Plains states.
At the surface, high pressure will remain centered along the
East Coast, gradually sliding offshore. The forecast for Friday
remains on track with deep mixing and 850 mb temperatures rising
to near 20C. Highs Friday look to average in the mid 90s well
inland across central VA/metro RIC, with upper 80s to lower 90s
closer to the coast. Latest NBM probabilities show a ~60 to 70%
chance for high temperatures greater than 95F on Friday
centered around and just north of the Richmond metro. However,
given the continental origin of this airmass, dew points
continue to be fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s, which
will act to mitigate the heat index from being much warmer than
the actual air temp. Near the coast, dew points will be a
little higher, but given a rather weak pressure gradient, winds
likely back to the SE and keep actual air temperatures held in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Advisories look unlikely at
this time, with peak heat indices in the mid- upper 90s (perhaps
reaching 100F in isolated locations across the Richmond metro)
Friday afternoon.

A cold front drops S across the local area Friday evening into
Friday night with at least a chance for showers/storms possible
(highest across N/NE portions of the FA). Will also have to
watch the potential for a stronger storm or two potentially
slipping into far northeastern portions of the area. SPC
currently has a marginal risk for severe storms just north of
the local area on Friday. Lows on Friday night will range from
the 60s to near 70F (warmest SE).

The upper level trough moves offshore Saturday with the center
of > 1020mb sfc high pressure moving from the Great Lakes to New
England before sliding off the Mid Atlantic later in the weekend.
Overall, it will be a pleasant start to the weekend with dew
pts falling back into the 50s for most of the area with highs in
the low- mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry for the weekend with temperatures close to normal for mid
  June.

- Hot and mainly dry weather returns early next week, likely
  persisting through the week.

Slightly warmer Sunday as high pressure shifts offshore,
temperatures will range from the upper 80s to around 90F inland
and low to mid 80s closer to the coast.

The models continue to depict the upper level ridge building
across the East Coast next week. The 12Z/12 ECMWF continues the
trend of being the strongest and most persistent with the ridge.
The 12Z/12 GFS has also come into better agreement with the
ECMWF (compared to previous runs) also showing a stronger and
more persistent ridge. Highs rise to 90-95F Monday inland
(mid/upper 80s along the coast) and a more widespread low-mid
90s on Tuesday. While it still does not appear to be that humid
(dew pts in 60s), WPC probs are ~50% across interior sections
of the local area at reaching heat indices at or above 100F by
Tue- Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions across area terminals early this morning to
prevail through the 06Z TAF period. Skies are mainly clear other
than high clouds. Light/variable winds overnight will take on a
south to southwest direction at inland sites and E-SE direction
closer to the coast by late morning/early aftn. Wind speeds will
average 5-10 kt inland, and around 10 kt or a little higher
close to the coast. Mainly SCT cu for the aftn. Mostly clear
with light southerly winds tonight.


Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Friday with
mainly dry weather. A cold front crosses the area Friday
evening into Friday night with a low chance for a few evening
showers or storms (best chance NE of KRIC to KSBY). Winds shift
around to the N-NE Saturday morning and will likely be a bit
elevated along the coast into the aftn (gusting to around 20
kt) as high pressure builds in from the N. After that, winds
will average 10 kt or less with VFR conditions and mostly clear
skies into early next week as high pressure gradually shifts off
the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

- Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible this afternoon
  in the lower James River and especially along the western
  shore of the Chesapeake Bay.

- A cold front drops south through the waters early Saturday
  with SCA conditions likely for the bay, lower James, and
  Currituck Sound.

1018mb high pressure has moved offshore early this morning,
resulting in southerly flow 5-10 kt over the local waters. Waves are
around 1 foot with seas 1-2 ft.

Weak synoptic flow will allow sea breeze forcing to augment
SE/onshore flow this afternoon. Winds increase to around 15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt, especially along the western shore of the Ches Bay
and potentially into the lower James River as well. Some of the hi-
res guidance shows winds increasing to around 20 kt late this
afternoon in these areas but confidence in seeing widespread winds
above SCA thresholds for more than a few hours is low so will hold
off on headlines for now. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt during the late
evening and overnight hours. The pressure gradient tightens on
Friday ahead of an approaching cold front but winds are expected to
stay in the 10-15 kt range in the pre-frontal southerly flow. Low
pressure off the Carolina coast looks to stay far enough SE to
limit local influence but any NW nudge in the track of this low
will bring the potential for increased winds/seas for the
southern coastal waters Friday afternoon. The front moves across
the waters late Friday night into Saturday morning with winds
becoming N and increasing to 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt. A
period of SCA headlines will likely accompany the frontal
passage into the first half of Saturday for the Ches Bay, lower
James River, and Currituck Sound. Confidence in seeing sustained
SCA conditions offshore is lower given the 25+kt wind
thresholds for the ocean waters. Waves in the bay will average
1-2 ft through the period with 2-3 ft possible during periods of
stronger flow this afternoon/evening and with the frontal
passage early Saturday. Seas will average 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft
likely during the stronger surge early Saturday. Offshore winds
will tend to limit seas and recent guidance has backed off on
the potential for 5 ft seas on Saturday. Quiet marine conditions
return Saturday evening and are likely to persist well into
next week with strong high pressure aloft lingering over the
region.

Low rip current risk continues for all beaches today but will have
to watch the northern beaches as seas increase late this afternoon.
By Friday, a tightening pressure gradient will help to increase near-
shore wave height and longer period swells for the northern beaches
where a moderate rip risk is likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are not likely for most places Friday, but are
listed below as RIC could be close:

- RIC: 99 (1926)
- ORF: 97 (1945)
- SBY: 97 (1945)
- ECG: 98 (1944)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...