887
FXUS61 KAKQ 091850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
250 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another weak cold front pushes through the region late today
into Monday, with the front lingering near the southeast coast
through Tuesday. High pressure settles across the area on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 155 PM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

- A weak cold front will bring scattered showers/storms to the
  area this afternoon into this evening.

- Highs around 90 for much of the area with mid to upper 80s
  across the Eastern Shore and far northwestern portions of the
  area.

A weak cold front was located from N VA WSW into WV early this
afternoon. Aloft, an upper level low was situated to the NE of
the Great Lakes. The cold front drops S later this afternoon as
the trough aloft deepens into the eastern CONUS while the upper
level low slides E. As the front passes through, there will be
a chance for scattered showers (and isolated thunderstorms).
However, low CAPE (~500 MLCAPE) will make it difficult to get
substantial coverage of precip. That being said, the RAP
suggests enough 3CAPE with surface vorticity along the front for
at least scattered convection later this afternoon. Have PoPs
gradually increasing as the front pushes SE later this afternoon
into this evening with CAMs showing the potential for greatest
coverage in NE NC this evening. Given ~60 kt of 0-6km shear,
gusts to 25-40 mph are possible with any stronger convection.
Showers taper off tonight before another round of light showers
potentially moves into NE NC late tonight into Mon morning. QPF
looks to be light with mainly <0.10" of precip.

W winds remain gusty this afternoon with gusts 20-25 mph this
afternoon. Winds become light overnight. Temps as of 150 PM
ranged from the lower 80s NW to the upper 80s SE. Highs this
afternoon around 90 for much of the area with mid to upper 80s
across the Eastern Shore and far northwestern portions of the
area. Overnight lows in the mid-upper 50s NW to the upper 60s
SE are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly cooler temps expected Monday and Tuesday with periods
  of isolated to widely scattered showers over the eastern half
  of the area on Tuesday.

A deepening trough over the eastern CONUS aloft will bring
relatively cooler temperatures and low humidity for the early week
period. Temperatures on Monday will struggle to reach 80 in far
northwestern locations. Most of the area will be in the low 80s. RHs
will drop into 35-40% range. Lows Mon night will be in the upper 50s
W of I-95 and low-mid 60s to the E. Lowest highs of the week look to
be Tues as the UL trough axis swings through the region. Highs will
be in the upper 70s for most, around 80 S of US-460. Regarding
chances for precip, models are still struggling to decide what to do
with the development of sfc low pressure offshore. The 00z
GFS/Canadian/NAM favor a weaker low that forms off the Carolina
coast and quickly moves out to sea, mostly leaving the local area
dry. The ECMWF, however, is hanging on to a slightly stronger low
closer to the FA and bringing precip to at least eastern portions of
the area Tuesday evening. Given general consensus of the former 3,
will lean more towards this solution. However, will maintain the
slight chance PoPs in the E on Tues.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Warming trend expected through the end of the week with highs
reaching the 90s by Thursday and Friday.

- Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday with only a slight chance
for afternoon/evening showers and storms Saturday.

The UL trough will push offshore Wed and a ridge tries to fill
in behind it. Southerly sfc flow and increasing thicknesses
mean a warming trend through the end of the week. Highs on Wed
look to be in the mid- upper 80s, then getting into the low-mid
90s for Thurs/Fri. There is the potential for a cold front to
pass through on Saturday, but models disagree on the whether or
not that front actually makes it to the Mid-Atlantic. Kept the
blended guidance in there for PoPs, which yields slight chance
PoPs Saturday afternoon. Sat will probably be a few degrees
cooler than Friday, but still around 90 for most places.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...

Primarily VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. CU
continue to increase in coverage this afternoon (5000-7000 ft
CIGs) ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this
evening ahead of and along the cold front. Gusts to around 25-30
kt are possible with the front and/or convection. Given shallow
moisture, don`t expect much reduction of VIS. Nevertheless,
can`t rule out a brief drop to IFR/MVFR VIS with any stronger
showers/storms. Convection tapers off from NW to SE later this
afternoon into this evening into NE NC where it lingers into Mon
morning. Winds were generally W ~15 kt with gusts to 25 kt this
afternoon. Winds are expected to gradually diminish late this
afternoon into this evening, becoming NW 5-10 kt this evening
before becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions prevail through Monday afternoon.
Showers/storms are possible mainly across the Eastern Shore
(including SBY) Monday evening with additional showers/storms
possible Tuesday afternoon along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Southwest winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 knots through this
afternoon (higher in showers/storms), shifting to the NW this
evening.

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions this week, increasing southerly flow
late in the week ahead of the next front.

- Low rip current risk at all area beaches Monday, potentially
trending toward moderate Tuesday across southern beaches.

A weak cold front is located just N of the forecast area this
afternoon. Ahead of this front, winds are westerly. Over the open
water (especially the eastern bay and offshore ocean waters), poor
mixing is leading to winds around 10 kt. Deep/effective mixing over
land is allowing wind gusts of ~20 kt to spill over into the tidal
rivers and near the land/water interface. A few locations right
along the Atlantic coast of Virginia Beach may even gust to 25 kt
occasionally. A look at area cameras shows any impact is quite
limited, so will continue to hold off on any marine products. Seas
are 1-3 ft (highest well offshore) and waves 1-2 ft. The front drops
S through the waters later this afternoon across the nrn bay and
coastal waters and through the remainder of the waters this evening.
Cannot rule out brief gusts to 35-40 kt with any showers/storms
along the front. Given the very brief expected duration, any
elevated winds associated w/ the front and/or convection will be
handled with an MWS or SMWs. Expect a lull in the winds behind the
front early tonight, before NW winds become more uniform around 10
kt with gusts to 15-20 kt later tonight. No headlines at this time
for this post-frontal event.

The wind direction becomes quite variable for Monday and sea
breezes may lead to onshore flow in the afternoon hours. Another
front drops S through the waters Mon night/Tue morning as sfc
low pressure lingers along the SE coast and high pressure slowly
builds in from the NW. This will provide a slightly better
chance for marginal SCA conditions. Wind probs for 18 kt
sustained are around 20% in the bay, though these tend to inch
up some once more hi-res guidance becomes available. NNE winds
10-15 kt linger into Tuesday, gradually diminishing overnight.
Otherwise, high pressure builds back in by midweek w/ sub- SCA
conditions continuing. Another weak low develops over the
Southeast/Gulf of Mexico from mid- late week with S winds
increasing to 15-20 kt late Thursday through Friday, potentially
resulting in SCAs late in the week.

Seas remain in the 2-3 ft range most of this week. Waves stay ~1 ft,
but briefly increase to 2 ft w/ the various northerly wind surges
tonight and Mon night. Seas increase to 2-4 ft (highest N) to end
the week. The rip risk looks mainly low, though may trend toward
moderate across srn beaches Tuesday w/ nearshore waves 2-3 ft and
NNE winds 10-20 mph.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM/RMM
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...LKB/SW