Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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864 FXUS61 KAKQ 090759 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 359 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another weak cold front pushes through the region late today into Monday, with the front lingering near the southeast coast through Tuesday. High pressure settles across the area on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Sunday... Key message: - A weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers/storms to the area with highest coverage along the coast. - Highs will be around 90 for much of the area, mid 80s on the Eastern Shore and far northern locations. Early this morning, a weak cold front is located just to the W of Appalachia and is progressing toward the local area. Aloft, low pressure is situated to the N of the Great Lakes with the associated trough dipping into the upper Midwest. Today, the cold front will cross the FA and the trough aloft will deepen into the eastern CONUS as UL low pressure slides E. As the front passes through, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms. However, a lack of moisture will make it hard to get any substantial coverage of precip. Moisture is a bit higher at the coast (highest in the SE), so that`s where coverage will likely be highest. Have Chc PoPs starting in the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck in the early-mid afternoon hours with Schc elsewhere N of I-64. Showers/storms progress to the SE in the late afternoon through early evening. Have introduced 45-60% PoPs to portions of Hampton Roads and the lower Eastern Shore given agreement between the 00z CAMs for this. After sunset, precip should be limited mostly to NE NC and far SE VA. Given lack of moisture, QPF should mostly be <0.1". Temps will be able to rise to around 90 ahead of the front for much of the area, but the Eastern Shore and far northern locations will be a few degrees cooler. Winds become westerly today and will gust 20-25mph during the afternoon. The front pushes offshore by tomorrow morning. Lows will range from the upper 50s in the NW piedmont to the upper 60s in the SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Slightly cooler temps expected Monday and Tuesday with periods of isolated to widely scattered showers over the eastern half of the area on Tuesday. A deepening trough over the eastern CONUS aloft will bring relatively cooler temperatures and low humidity for the early week period. Temperatures on Monday will struggle to reach 80 in far northwestern locations. Most of the area will be in the low 80s. RHs will drop into 35-40% range. Lows Mon night will be in the upper 50s W of I-95 and low-mid 60s to the E. Lowest highs of the week look to be Tues as the UL trough axis swings through the region. Highs will be in the upper 70s for most, around 80 S of US-460. Regarding chances for precip, models are still struggling to decide what to do with the development of sfc low pressure offshore. The 00z GFS/Canadian/NAM favor a weaker low that forms off the Carolina coast and quickly moves out to sea, mostly leaving the local area dry. The ECMWF, however, is hanging on to a slightly stronger low closer to the FA and bringing precip to at least eastern portions of the area Tuesday evening. Given general consensus of the former 3, will lean more towards this solution. However, will maintain the slight chance PoPs in the E on Tues. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Warming trend expected through the end of the week with highs reaching the 90s by Thursday and Friday. - Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday with only a slight chance for afternoon/evening showers and storms Saturday. The UL trough will push offshore Wed and a ridge tries to fill in behind it. Southerly sfc flow and increasing thicknesses mean a warming trend through the end of the week. Highs on Wed look to be in the mid- upper 80s, then getting into the low-mid 90s for Thurs/Fri. There is the potential for a cold front to pass through on Saturday, but models disagree on the whether or not that front actually makes it to the Mid-Atlantic. Kept the blended guidance in there for PoPs, which yields slight chance PoPs Saturday afternoon. Sat will probably be a few degrees cooler than Friday, but still around 90 for most places. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 AM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. BKN-OVC high level clouds stretch across the FA tonight. These are expected to partially scatter out early in the morning. However, weak cold front passage will bring high and mid level clouds back. Also, isolated to widely scattered showers/tstms are expected to pass through the area in the afternoon through the late evening hours. Light southerly winds tonight become westerly with gusts to around 20kt during the afternoon. Lighter NW winds expected behind the front. Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions prevail through Monday evening. Showers/tstms will again be possible along the coast late Monday night through Tuesday evening. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - Southwest winds increase to 15-17 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots tonight. - South winds increase to 15-20 knots late Friday into Friday night with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. - Low rip current risk at all area beaches Sunday and Monday. High pressure remains centered across the Southeast into tonight. A weak surface trough approaches the local waters overnight. As such, winds shift from variable ~5-7 kt this afternoon to S/SE 10-15 kt this evening, becoming SW 15-17 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (highest across the coastal waters). Marginal SCA conditions are possible overnight, however, conditions appear marginal (wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds were 50-60% for the bay but only for 3 hours). Given marginal wind probs and SW winds over warm waters leading to potentially less effective mixing, will hold off on SCAs at this time. SW winds diminish to 10-15 kt by Sun morning, becoming W with a few gusts to 20 kt across the rivers Sun afternoon, then becoming N/NNW 10-15 kt Sun night behind a cold front. High pressure builds back in from the W with a weak coastal low moving along the coast late Mon through Tue night. However, winds appear to remain below SCA criteria. Another weak low develops over the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico from mid-late week with S winds increasing to 15-20 kt Fri into Fri night. SCAs are possible for this surge. Waves and seas were ~1 ft and ~2 ft respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft respectively overnight, subsiding to 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft by Sun afternoon. Additionally, there is a low rip current risk Sun and Mon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...AM SHORT TERM...AM LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...AM MARINE...ESS/RMM