733
FXUS61 KAKQ 050134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
934 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through Thursday with daily chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front pushes through
late Thursday into Thursday evening, bringing drier conditions
for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 935 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms gradually
  dissipate late this evening, with isolated showers lingering
  overnight.

Scattered showers/tstms linger over interior NE NC this
evening, with isolated showers/tstms over central and southern
VA. Otherwise, partly cloudy with temperatures in the 70s.
Showers/tstms should continue to dissipate in coverage late this
evening, with isolated showers lingering overnight. A weak
boundary (mainly a wind shift from ESE to S), which has been the
focus for the activity over NE NC will gradually lift N
overnight. Areas N of the boundary could have a marine layer
push onshore in ESE flow resulting in some stratus and fog
overnight. This will mainly be across the Eastern Shore, and the
western shore of the Bay along the Middle Peninsula and
Northern Neck. However, confidence is not very high in
fog/stratus as model guidance has been too aggressive with the
onset, and no widespread stratus/fog has been observed as of
930 PM. Low temperatures tonight will mainly be in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining warm and humid Wednesday/Thursday.

- Scattered storms are expected Wednesday with additional storms
  possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Locally heavy rain is possible both Wednesday and Thursday.

A series of disturbances/MCVs push across the region tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow night, as an upper level low approaches
the Great Lakes. Resultant increasing mid-level flow should
provide ample forcing for ascent to kick off the first of what
should be a few rounds of showers and storms tomorrow morning,
with additional showers and storms expected to develop throughout
the afternoon and into Wed evening. Flooding concern eases to
some degree with storm motions likely faster than those of
today/tonight. That said, given the expected multiple rounds of
convection, locally heavy rain remains a possibility, again with
main concern in flood prone/urbanized areas. The WPC Excessive
Rainfall Outlook remains in place for the NW half of the area,
coincident with better forcing across the northern third of the
area (US-60 northward). There remains a very low chance for an
isolated severe storm or two, but with kinematics rather weak
given the expected multiple rounds of convection and overall
weak bulk shear, heavy rain/flood potential remains the primary
hazard.

Rain tapers off Wed night, but likely re-fires Thu late
morning/afternoon as the cold front approaches the area. Additional
scattered storms are likely, with the best chance for a few
strong to severe storms across SE VA/NE NC, where likely PoPs
(60-70%) remain in place. Any storms move offshore by Thu night
as drier air moves into the region behind the front. Much like
Wed, a few strong storms are possible across the southeastern
portion of the area Thu aftn and night, with gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall the main hazard. SPC Day 3 Risk remains
in the General Risk category, largely due lingering
uncertainties regarding exact timing. Highs in the mid to upper
80s Wed (highest SE) and upper 80s to lower 90s Thu expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns Friday into early next week, with near
  to below normal temperatures appearing likely over the weekend
  into early next week.

Drier weather moves in Fri behind a cold front as dewpoints drop
into the 50s. Pleasantly cooler and drier Friday night into
Saturday, with dry weather expected. Aloft, an upper level low
moves into the Great Lakes on Fri, lingering into early next
week. Latest GEFS/ECS continue to jostle for when the next
(weak) cold front drops into the area. Either way, it appears
the upper level low is too close to the local area for enough
instability for much in the way of widespread showers and/or
storms on Sunday. Instead, only a slight chance for a few
isolated showers/storms exists late Sun, with slight to low-end
chance PoPs continuing Mon and Tue. Highs mainly in the lower to
middle 80s with lows in the upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail as of 00z with a S wind of 5-10kt at RIC,
and SE to E 5-10kt toward the coast. Isolated to scattered
showers/tstms have stayed away from the TAF sites and should
gradually dissipate through this evening. Although slight chc of
showers will linger overnight. Model guidance has been rather
aggressive with a marine layer bringing stratus and fog to SBY.
However, observed data has not indicated that this has formed
yet, so have delayed the onset at SBY with a tempo IFR group by
04z, and then prevailing IFR after 06z. The remaining sites
should largely remain VFR overnight. However, brief vsby
restrictions are possible at PHF and ORF late this evening
through about 06z, before the wind shifts from SE to SSW, and
brief MVFR conditions are possible at RIC early Wednesday
morning. Conditions improve to VFR at SBY later Wednesday
morning after about 14z. Scattered showers/tstms are expected
Wednesday aftn. Mainly VFR with brief vsby restrictions possible
in showers/tstms, with a SSW wind of 8-12kt.

Scattered showers/tstms are expected once again Thursday.
Mainly dry Friday through Sunday, with VFR likely prevailing
for much of Friday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Gusty southwest winds expected Wednesday night and Thursday.
  Small Craft Advisories are looking likely for the Chesapeake
  Bay during this time.

- Daily chances for showers/storms could cause locally higher winds
  and waves.

- Low rip current Wednesday, trending toward moderate across the
  northern beaches Thursday.

A weak backdoor front is located near the area this afternoon.
Generally, winds are 10 kt or less and variable in direction. This
boundary could spark off isolated shower or storm activity through
this evening, which could cause brief periods of heavy rain and
gusty winds. Otherwise, winds gradually become easterly 5-10 kt for
all of the marine area this evening as the front pushes further
inland. The wind direction shifts SE tonight and then S through most
of Wednesday as the backdoor boundary lifts north as a warm front
and a cold front gradually approaches from the west. Small craft
advisory winds become probable, especially in the Chesapeake Bay,
Wednesday night and Thursday. At this time, winds of 15-20 kt w/
gusts to 25 kt are expected in the bay, with ~20 kt winds possible
in the northern coastal waters. It is a little early to hoist
headlines at this time, however. Also should mention additional
showers/storms are again possible in the aftn and evening both Wed
and Thu. The front crosses the waters Thursday night. Winds will be
sub-SCA Friday in the front`s wake while shifting to the W/NW.
Benign conditions expected through the weekend.

Seas are 1-2 ft and waves 1 ft or less this afternoon and a similar
sea state prevails through Wednesday. With the increased southerly
flow Wed night/Thu, seas will trend up to 3-4 ft (5 ft possible out
20 nm across the nrn waters) and waves in the bay increase to 2-3
ft. 2-3 ft seas prevail Friday through the weekend, with waves 1-2
ft.

The rip risk is low this afternoon and should be low Wednesday for
all beaches. As S winds kick up in the afternoon Wed, could near
moderate-level conditions across the nrn beaches. However, will keep
the forecast low at this time. Moderate looks more likely for the
nrn beaches Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 505 PM EDT Monday...

Some shallow / nuisance coastal flooding remains possible
during the higher high tide cycles tonight/early Wednesday
morning, mostly for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. At
this time, the highest tide looks to be early Thursday morning
where Cambridge, Bishops Head, and Crisfield all could near 3.5
ft MLLW, which is minor flooding at these sites. Otherwise, most
tidal sites in the middle and lower bay, including up the James
River, may see only very shallow flooding near the waterfront
over the next couple days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/RMM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ