805
FXUS61 KAKQ 070004
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
804 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes across the region this evening, with
scattered strong to severe storms possible. Behind the front,
cooler, drier conditions push into the region for Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Severe T-Storm Watch 394 continues until 9pm for locations
  along the coast and in SE VA. Strong wind gusts remain the
  primary threat from any storm through this evening.

- Clearing late tonight, with drier air moving into the region.

Showers and thunderstorms have gradually progressed E this
evening. For the most part, storms have remained sub-severe.
However, have noted a few storms capable of producing marginally
severe winds (55-60 mph). With the loss of heating, expect a
downward trend in convection over the next few hrs. The severe
tstm watch has been cancelled for most of the VA Piedmont, but
continues for counties/cities closer to coasts of the bay and
ocean. This is where 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE still resides per
SPC mesoanalysis. Effective shear values remain on the weak
side, on the order of ~20 kt. Locally damaging winds, heavy
rainfall, and lightning remain the primary threats from any
stronger storm.

The majority of the shower/storm activity should exit the area
after midnight tonight. However, a few CAMs (primarily the HRRR)
suggest storms may linger or redevelop over NE NC into early Fri
morning. Have therefore kept some higher PoPs here into this
time period. Clouds eventually scatter out and winds diminish
as the front passes through late tonight. Early morning lows in
the low 60s inland and in the upper 60s-around 70 closer to the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns for Friday and Saturday.

- Another weak front pushes through the area Sunday, but should
  remain mostly dry

Drier weather moves into the region Friday behind the departing
cold front, with dewpoints drop into the 50s. Aloft, an upper
level low moves into the Great Lakes on Fri, lingering into
early next week. Guidance continues to trend toward pushing the
weakening front though the region on Sunday night, but it still
appears the upper level low is too close to the local area for
enough instability for much in the way of widespread showers
and/or storms on Sunday. Have stuck with slight to low- end Chc
PoPs across far northern counties in the afternoon with slight
chc PoPs everywhere else except the SE. May see slightly higher
coverage by later in the evening.

Thicknesses change only slightly tomorrow, so expect highs again
in the low 80s in the NW and on the Eastern Shore, mid-upper 80s
elsewhere. A few degrees cooler (and drier) on Saturday with
highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. Warmer on Sunday with highs
mid to upper 80s to near 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Near to below normal temps expected in the early week period
  with warmer temps returning mid-week

- Mostly dry through the early week, but isolated showers
  possible

A bit cooler in the early week period as a fairly deep UL trough
lingers over the northeast. This feature will keep us near to
just below normal for highs, with maxima expected to remain in
the upper 70s in the far N/NW and low 80s elsewhere Mon/Tue.
Temps warm up into the mid- upper 80s again mid- week once the
trough is offshore and a ridge builds in behind it. Precip in
the early week period is a bit uncertain and likely to be
isolated at best with the trough in the area, but we should
remain mainly dry. Kept PoPs to slight to low-end Chc with
mainly diurnal timing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 805 PM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR expected through the 00z TAF period. Currently noting
a disorganized line of showers and storms extending from just S
of SBY to PHF into portions of interior NE NC. As this activity
slides E over the next few hrs, could see some gusty winds at
ORF, with a better chance at some heavier storms and vsby
restrictions at ECG (mainly between 1 and 3z). Storms mainly
stay S of SBY, but will keep VCTS for the first 2 hrs. Into
early Fri morning, some guidance suggests redeveloping storms
over NE NC. Confidence in this scenario is very low and will
just use VCSH wording for now. Skies scatter out as the front
clears the area late tonight. Winds turn W ~10 kt for Fri aftn,
with gusts up to 20 kt. Some SCT aftn CU also possible.

Outlook: Dry and VFR Friday night into Saturday behind the cold
front. Another cold front will bring a slight chc of
showers/tstms later Sunday. A slight chc of showers/tstms
lingers in to Monday, but overall VFR conditions should prevail
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled as of 3PM this
afternoon.

- Showers/storms will cause locally higher winds and waves this
evening.

- Moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches through this
evening with a low risk at all area beaches expected Friday into the
weekend.

Afternoon analysis shows low pressure over western Ontario with a
cold front extending southward along the spine of the Appalachians.
Surface high pressure is well offshore, leading to SW winds around
15 kt across the local waters. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft with seas
offshore running 2-4 ft.

Pressure gradient has finally relaxed a bit after multiple
extensions to previous SCA headlines this morning and early
afternoon. Expect SW flow to continue for the remainder of the
afternoon and evening with the cold front still to the west. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 394 has been issued for all local waters north of
the VA/NC border through 9PM this evening. Strong straight line
winds are the main threat from thunderstorms but enhanced waves/seas
and frequent CG lightning are likely with the stronger convective
cells this evening. Most of the storms should move well offshore by
midnight with the cold front expected to cross the waters
thereafter. Winds will generally be from the west 5-10 kt on Friday
but a surge of cooler/drier air looks to move through the area
Friday evening into the overnight with winds becoming NW and
increasing to ~15 kt. Some of the hi-res guidance is now showing the
potential for a brief period of SCA conditions Friday night but
confidence is too low at this point to raise headlines. Expecting
mostly quiet marine conditions for Sunday into early next week. Flow
becomes SW once again on Sunday ahead of the next cold front which
should cross the waters Sunday evening. Waves/seas will average 1-2
ft and 2-3 ft, respectively, into early next week.

Low rip current risk is forecast for all area beaches Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Some nuisance/low-end minor coastal flooding is forecast during
tonight`s high tide cycle for bay-facing portions of the MD
Eastern Shore including Cambridge, Bishops Head, and Crisfield
where a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SW
SHORT TERM...AM/MAM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MAM/SW
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...