Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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861 FXUS61 KAKQ 110610 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 210 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough moves through the area today, bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms, mainly near the coast. High pressure settles across the region on Wednesday, then pushes off the coast Thursday and Friday, bringing hot conditions to the local area by the end of the week. A cold front pushes through Friday night, with slightly cooler weather for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1055 PM EDT Monday... Key message: - A few isolated to widely scattered showers are possible across northern portions of the area late this evening into early tonight. Current surface analysis depicts a positively tilted upper trough with a pair of embedded shortwaves centered over the Appalachians into the mid-South slowly moving towards the mid- Atlantic region. At the surface, a weak front/surface trough is currently crossing over the region, with some isolated to widely scattered showers over lower MD into N VA. Showers will slowly push east across the region overnight, with an isolated shower or two as far south as along the VA/NC border into Hampton Roads by 4-6z. A 20-30% PoP for showers continues into the overnight, tapering off overnight. Greatest coverage over the northeastern corner of the area, closest to the crossing upper shortwave. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s well inland, to low- mid 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered storms develop along the sea breeze Tuesday. A few storms may be strong to severe across far southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. An upper level trough lingers through Tue before moving offshore. Meanwhile, a surface trough is expected to be centered across NE NC into far SE VA. A sea breeze is expected to develop by late Tue morning into early Tue afternoon and gradually push inland through the day. Behind it, dew points in the mid 60s (potentially higher) are expected. These higher dew points combined with modest mid-upper level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C in the 850-500 mb region should allow for MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Meanwhile, 0-6km shear of 30-40 kt exists (highest across NE NC) with most of the shear above 700 mb. The combination of MLCAPE, shear, and modest lapse rates should allow for some strong to locally severe storms to develop along the sea breeze as early as around noon and continuing through the afternoon. Small to marginally severe hail as well as strong to severe downbursts are the main threats. As such, SPC has introduced a marginal risk for severe storms across this area (extreme SE VA and NE NC). Storms taper off by late afternoon into the evening as the seabreeze pushes farther inland while the upper level trough moves E. Isolated to scattered storms will also be possible across the rest of the coastline and especially the Eastern Shore Tue afternoon, however, shear and instability are lower in these areas with general thunderstorms expected. Total QPF of ~0.25" (locally 1"+) is expected across extreme SE VA/NE NC with mainly <0.2" elsewhere. Highs Tue will be cooler in the upper 70s NW to the mid 80s SE. High pressure moves in Wed with drier weather and highs in the mid 80s. Lows in the mid 50s W to low-mid 60s E Tue night and lower 60s W to mid-upper 60s E Wed night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with highs reaching the mid 90s by Friday. - Mostly dry into early next week with only a slight chance for a few evening showers and storms Friday and afternoon showers and storms Saturday. A ridge builds over the East Coast from mid-late week while surface high pressure gradually moves offshore. This will allow for dry conditions and a warming trend from mid-late week as highs increase from the upper 80s to lower 90s Thu to the mid 90s on Fri (lower 90s along the coast). While temps will be hot by Fri, dew points in the 60s will act to mitigate the heat index from being much warmer than the actual air temp. That being said, we could be looking at heat indices in the mid-upper 90s on Fri afternoon. A cold front moves through Fri night with a few isolated showers or storms possible along it Fri evening across NE portions of the FA. A few additional storms are possible across the S Sat afternoon. The upper level ridge builds back in to the East Coast this weekend into early next week with warm temps continuing. Highs in the mid-upper 80s NE to the lower 90s SW Sat, low-mid 80s E to the upper 80s to ~90F W Sun, and upper 80s to lower 90s Mon. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 155 AM EDT Tuesday... A cluster of showers/tstms is pushing off the coast of the eastern shore, with gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. SBY is now seeing improving conditions with rain ending and will become VFR right around the start of the TAF period. Elsewhere, just a few isolated light showers are passing across central and southern VA but will likely miss all of the main terminals with VFR conditions w/ SCT-BKN clouds at 5-10k ft. Clouds generally diminish in coverage towards sunrise, with winds shifting to the N/NE. Expect to see CU increase in coverage by mid- late morning (especially along the coast), with scattered showers and embedded tstms developing between 15-18Z, enhanced along a sea breeze boundary across far SE VA/NE NC and the eastern shore. Locally heavy downpours are likely with any storm, with brief gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest storms (though coverage of stronger storms is expected to be isolated). The most probably flight restriction will be from IFR-LIFR VSBYs in heavy downpours, through a few MVFR CIGs are possible. The best chance is at ECG where a period with prevailing SHRA and VCTS has been included in the TAF. While possible, confidence is lower at ORF/PHF/SBY where VCSH has been included for now. Limited chance for any convection to affect RIC. Any showers/storms taper off between 21Z-00Z, dry and becoming mostly clear later tonight. Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with dry weather tonight through Friday. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Key messages: - Brief increase of S-SE winds to 15 kt this evening ahead of a weak cool front. - Winds turn northerly later tonight. - Generally quiet marine conditions expected through Thursday before an increase of S-SE winds on Thu night and Friday. Winds will turn south to southeast late this afternoon into this evening ahead of a weak cold front/trough. Latest high resolution models suggest a bump up of winds especially across the southern Chesapeake Bay and adjacent coastal waters to near small craft advisory conditions (18kt). The high res ensemble guidance shows about a 60% probability of 18kt winds. However, these high res models tend to be a tad high with winds in the lower bay. As such, will increase winds late this afternoon and this evening to 15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt, but keep out any SCA. Winds turn northerly tonight behind this feature. Will continue with 10-15 kt winds through Tuesday, then decrease these winds as high pressure builds overhead. High pressure moves offshore by the end of the week, likely causing S-SE winds to increase once again to near SCA. Waves generally 2 feet or less through much of the week. Seas will likely build to 2 to 4 feet over the ocean later in the week as the high shifts offshore. Despite winds becoming slightly onshore on Tuesday across the southern waters, the rip current risk will remain low through Wednesday with surf heights of 1-2 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...LKB/MAM MARINE...MRD