732
FXUS61 KAKQ 191904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
304 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather is expected today, albeit with clouds persisting
through much of the day. Dry conditions and a clearing sky
return for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more
summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Clouds temporarily scatter out later this evening, then build
  back in overnight. Lows in the mid-50s tonight.

- Patchy fog possible in the piedmont early tomorrow morning

Cloudy conditions persist this afternoon, though a few breaks in the
clouds can be noted on latest satellite imagery. Sfc high pressure
centered over Atlantic Canada is still ridging into the local area
this afternoon while low pressure spins well offshore. Aloft, a
positively tilted trough is slow to move offshore, its axis crossing
into southeastern portions of the area. As the trough progresses E,
dry air should filter into the area and allow clouds to scatter out
more later this evening. Even with clouds, temps have managed to
warm to near 70 inland and the mid-60s near the coast. Expect temps
will gain a couple more degrees before the afternoon is over.
Scattered cloud cover is expected for the first half of the night,
then clouds build back in late tonight and into early morning.
Guidance also suggests that patchy fog will develop in the piedmont
tonight, but this should clear up shortly after sunrise. Lows
tonight will be in the mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures
  Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures
  expected well inland.

- A noticeable warming trend this week, though it remains cooler
  at the coast relative to inland locations.

Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week
as an UL ridge builds in and the sfc high over Canada shifts south.
Onshore flow will continue through Tues, though, so coastal areas
will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start.
Highs on Mon will be in the upper 70s in the piedmont, low-mid 70s
in the E, and upper 60s immediately near the coast. Tues will have
highs in the low 80s inland and low 70s at the coast. Will likely
still see some gradient in temps Wed as winds shift to the SE, then
S. Mid 80s are expected for most locations, but upper 70s to near 80
close at the coast. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s during this
period. Regarding cloud cover, starting out mostly cloudy Mon
morning, then scattering out in the afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear
skies for Tues and Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers
and thunderstorms

-Warm with additional chances for afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend

Hot weather continues into Thursday as the ridge aloft gets
suppressed/pushed offshore ahead of the approaching system. Highs
will be close to 90 with slightly cooler temps in the Eastern Shore.
A cold front will then cross the region, bringing chances for
thunderstorms. Still far enough out that there is some uncertainty
in the timing and coverage of precip associated with the front, but
global models are in general agreement that the frontal passage
occurs Thursday night. Still maintaining Chnc PoPs moving from the
NW in the afternoon and moving E later in the evening. Thunderstorms
are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability. Certainly cannot
rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-50 kt of upper-
level flow overspreading the region. Likely cooler on Friday if the
front has passed. Still showing temps around 80 across northern
counties and low-mid 80s elsewhere. Warm temps stick around through
the weekend with highs around 80 both Sat and Sun. There will be
daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Fri-
Sun, though uncertainty is high due to disagreement between global
models in sfc and upper air features.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...

Widespread MVFR across the area this afternoon as BKN-OVC skies
persist. Drier air will filter into the area as an upper level
trough pivots offshore, allowing clouds to scatter out over much
of the area this evening. Clouds are expected to build back into
the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning. With the
clouds come the return of flight restrictions with MVFR at the
coast and potential IFR at RIC. Guidance also suggests formation
of fog over the piedmont overnight, which may impact RIC. NE
winds will persist at the coast through the period. Further
inland, winds become light and varied overnight.

Outlook: Lower CIGs potentially lingering along the coast
through Monday evening with flight restrictions possible. VFR
expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and
  lower bay due to seas.

- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and
  continuing for much of the week.

A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward
through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South
Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across
all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of
Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the
low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will
gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect
NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps
increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal
waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4
to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the
northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet
(although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the
possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all
small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted
that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be
on Monday.

Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday  evening as the high shifts
offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the
remainder of the forecast period.

A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the
southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4-
 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern
beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3-
4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with
Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before
falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may
cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites
should stay below action stage.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....

Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies
already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to
minor coastal flooding during tonight`s high tide, and most
likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a
coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD
eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern
Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching
action stage.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654-656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...