Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 260812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
412 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds will push inland along a maritime airmass today as
our next weather-maker approaches from the west. Moderate to
heavy rainfall is expected later Wednesday into Thursday, with
rainfall totals approaching 2-3 inches across the southeast
portion of the area. Locally higher amounts will be possible,
potentially leading to flooding concerns. High pressure and
breezy winds return for Friday before weak disturbances pass
though for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM AM EDT Tuesday...

Early morning analysis shows surface high pressure still extending
down into portions of the Mid-Atlantic with ridging aloft. An area
of low pressure continues to spin well offshore. Flow remains
northeasterly at the surface as the maritime air mass is beginning
to descend upon the coast with a wall of low clouds.
Additionally, high clouds are streaming in from the west well
ahead of a cold front west of the Mississippi River valley. The
main story for the near term will be those low clouds moving
ashore and sticking around for most of, if not the entire day.
Locations along the coast have the highest confidence of seeing
the overcast skies remain overhead, with questions about just
how far west it reaches through the day. Guidance has the clouds
trying to move into Richmond after sunrise, though ceilings
won`t be quite as low as along the coast. High temperatures are
expected to reach the lower 60s across the southwest where the
clouds likely won`t be as thick, with low to mid 50s across the
east. A cold front starts to approach from the west Tuesday
night. Moisture will have a harder time getting over the
mountains, so kept rain chances out of our CWA until the later-
early morning hours/closer to sunrise. Overnight lows will hold
in the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...

Expect light rain to be across the area when you wake up on
Wednesday. It initially won`t be a wash out, but that will quickly
change as the day progresses Wednesday into the overnight hours. A
low pressure system will traverse just north of the Great Lakes
Region as the trough becomes negatively tilted and extends well into
the southern US. Southwesterly flow will allow a fair amount of Gulf
moisture to stream into our area ahead of the cold front that will
eventually weaken and temporarily stall out overhead. A surface low
looks to develop and move along the boundary into NC. Models have
come into slightly better agreement about the track and strength of
this low. Moderate to heavy rainfall will develop on the north and
west sides of the low, putting our CWA in prime position for a good
soaking Wednesday night into Thursday. The main difference remaining
with this forecast is exactly how wide will the extent of the heavy
rain be. This will shift the heaviest totals in either direction
depending on what future model runs indicate. The GFS has a swath of
2.5-4 inches of rainfall from the I-85 corridor up into the Eastern
Shore, while the Euro has the higher totals of 2-3 inches across NE
NC/SE VA. Hi-res models are beginning to show a slight eastward
trend in the higher totals as well. For now, storm total QPF in our
grids shows 1-1.5" from Cambridge to Chase City, 1.5-2.5" from
Salisbury to Alberta (including the Richmond metro), and 2.5-3.5
across the Hampton Roads/Norfolk metro and down into NE NC. WPC has
a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the area. Given the area
received 1-3" a few days ago, this rainfall (combined with the
likely large QPF footprint) could lead to hydro concerns across the
region and possible flood watches down the road. See the hydro
discussion below for more info. Additionally, northerly winds will
become breezy Thursday afternoon. High temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will be in the mid 50s, aside from upper 50s to lower 60s
across far SE NC Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...

System moves offshore on Friday as the local area remains in
northwesterly flow aloft on the backside of the trough. There will
also be a surface high pressure building in from the southwest.
Expect Friday to feature gusty northwest winds, and some mid to high
level clouds may stream in ahead of the next disturbance. High
temperatures Friday will be in the lower 60s inland with upper 50s
along the coast. We will stay in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft
through the weekend, which will allow weak disturbances to pass
through from time to time. The first of which will slide by across
the northern portion of the state on Saturday bringing increased
cloudiness and a slight chance of showers mainly north of I-64. A
second disturbance may move in on Sunday with a more southern
trajectory, possibly bringing a chance of showers to the entire
area. This pattern looks to persist into early next week. Highs will
reach 70 degrees this weekend and into Monday, with low to mid 60s
across the coast/Eastern Shore.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail early this morning, though changes are
imminent. A maritime air mass is moving towards the coast from
the east with low CIGs that will be locked in for most TAF sites
throughout the entire day. Additionally, high level clouds are
streaming in from the west. As the low CIGs overspread the area
from east to west, expect conditions to quickly fall into low-
end MVFR to IFR categories. Generally expecting CIGs of BKN-
OVC007-010 at SBY within the next hour or two (~6-7Z), then
reaching ECG/ORF/PHF before sunrise. It is less certain just
how far west these low clouds will reach, so indicated a drop at
RIC but kept it around BKN030 for now. These clouds, especially
for coastal sites, are expected to stick around all day, so
don`t expect any improvements to conditions. If CIGs do bump
back into low-end MVFR, expect them to become IFR again after
~02z. Winds will be NE at 8-12kt along the coast with a few
gusts to 20kt, with inland sites becoming more E/SE at 5-10kt
through the afternoon.

Outlook: Rain chances will return on Wed and persist into Thu
evening. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will also be possible.
Flight restrictions are likely.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...

Deepening low pressure is slowly drifting SE away from local waters
early this morning. Behind it, the pressure gradient is weakening,
allowing winds to diminish. Latest obs indicate NE winds at 10-15kt
at most locations, though still seeing a few 15-20kt obs over
coastal waters. Buoy observations show seas still elevated at 8-
12ft. Waves are generally 2-3ft, 4-6ft in the mouth of the bay.
NE/ENE winds will continue today, diminishing to 5-10kt in the
bay/rivers and 10-15kt over coastal waters by the afternoon. Given
breezy onshore conditions, seas will be slow to drop below SCA
criteria. By this evening, seas will still be elevated to ~8-9ft.
Tonight and into Wednesday, winds drop down to 5-10kt across all
waters. Seas of 5ft+ will likely continue through Wednesday, so have
extended the SCAs for the coastal waters until Wednesday evening.
Additional extensions may be needed.

Another round of marine hazards is likely starting Thurs and lasting
into Friday evening. Secondary cyclogenesis along a front will lead
to increased N-NW winds as the low travel up the coast. At this
point, gale warnings seem likely for bay and coastal water zones.
Northerly winds increase to 20-25kt by Thursday afternoon, then
reach 30-35kt with gusts around 40kt late Thursday night. Local wind
probabilities show ~20% chance for sustained winds of at least 34kt.
As the event comes into range of high-res models, will be monitoring
the trend in probs. Will remain at at least SCA levels through the
day Friday before dropping back to sub-SCA Friday evening/night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The area received a beneficial 1-3" of rain this past Saturday.
With additional rainfall expected Wednesday into Thursday,
there could be hydrological concerns late this week. Recent
updates to the flash flood guidance show lower values needed in
the 3 and 6 hr time ranges. Ensemble river guidance also shows
the potential for river flooding in the Chowan basin if the
higher rainfall amounts were to be realized. There could also be
the typical concerns with flooding in urban or other flood-
prone areas. Stay tuned for updates as a flood watch may
eventually need to be issued.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 930 PM EDT Monday...

Tidal departures average 1.50 to 1.75ft above normal
astronomical tide over most of the Bay, with a few spots on the
west side of the lower Bay now approaching 2.0ft above normal.
After mostly flood tide dominance Sunday through earlier today,
tidal currents at the mouth of the Bay appear to be trending
towards neutral this evening. NE winds have increased and this
will tend to push departures up a bit more over the lower
Bay/James, while keeping them steady or possibly even dropping
them over the upper Bay. The winds will then diminish early
Tuesday so this pattern will probably then switch again later
Tuesday.

Have left the headlines as they were: maintaining the Coastal
Flood Watch for the upper bay later Tuesday into early
Wednesday for potential moderate flooding during that timeframe.
Will keep the coastal flood advisory for the remainder of the
area through Tuesday night with multiple high tide cycles likely
reaching minor flood. Water levels are expected to fall later
Wednesday, though will need to watch for the potential for some
additional minor coastal flooding late Thursday in the lower bay
(especially Lynnhaven) and the NC Outer Banks due to the
increasing N-NW flow on the back side of the next low pressure
system moving up the coast.

Due to the large swell of 7-10 feet through Tuesday, will maintain
the high surf advisory for the entire coastal zone. With these large
waves and minor coastal flooding, there is certainly some potential
for beach erosion and have that mentioned in the CFW statement.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday
     morning for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ024-
     025.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ102.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ075>078-085-522.
     Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday
     morning for VAZ075>078-085-522.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ082-084-
     086-089-090-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ093-
     095>098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-
     100.
     Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through late tonight for
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...JKP
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...JKP
AVIATION...JKP/TMG
MARINE...AM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


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