209
FXUS61 KALY 012304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
704 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly clear and comfortable weather will continue into
tonight. It will be partly to mostly sunny again on Sunday with
a warm afternoon. Temperatures will remain fairly warm through
the upcoming week. While most areas will start the week off dry,
there will be an increasing threat for showers and
thunderstorms by later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...As of 7 PM EDT, patchy high clouds were streaming
east/southeast across the region, with a general uptick in cloud
coverage expected through early evening based on latest
satellite imagery. Otherwise, a pleasant evening with temps
currently in the mid 70s to lower 80s, except for some upper 60s
across higher terrain of the SW Adirondacks.

With this update, just some very minor adjustments to
temps/dewpoints based on latest obs.

[PREVIOUS 343 PM EDT]...As of 343 PM EDT...Upper level ridge
axis will be cresting over the forecast area this evening,
before sliding eastward for tonight. Visible satellite imagery
continues to show nearly completely clear skies over the region,
with just a few isolated cumulus around. Some cirrus clouds can
be seen upstream of the region over western New York and these
will spread towards the area for this evening into tonight. Even
with the thin passing high clouds, skies will be fairly clear
for the overnight hours.

Deep mixing today allow for a warm afternoon with low dewpoints.
For tonight, winds will be light to calm and the dry air mass
and fairly clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling.
Went a little below the blended guidance for overnight lows
across the region, with low to mid 50s for most spots (some
upper 40s in the highest terrain).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging will be slowly drifting eastward through the day on
Sunday. Although skies will start off fairly clear, increasing
amounts of cloud cover can be expected through the day. With
good mixing and 850 hpa temps around +12 to +14 C, it will be
another warm day, with valley highs well into the 80s. With the
good mixing, it won`t be humid as well (although dewpoints may
be slightly higher than Saturday with values in the upper 40s to
low 50s).

While most of Sunday will be dry, there will be a slight to low
chance for a brief shower or sprinkle for Sunday evening into
Sunday night, as an upper level disturbance starts to approach
from the west. This feature will be falling apart and fairly
moisture starved, so most areas will be dry, but a brief shower
can`t be ruled out for southern areas for Sunday night.
Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows in
the 50s.

Upper level ridging will become re-established over the area for
Monday into Monday night. With continued warm temps aloft and
high heights in place, it will be another warm afternoon with
highs well into the 80s on Monday. Dewpoints will be a little
higher than the weekend, but still comfortable with values in
the mid 50s. Skies should be fairly sunny on Monday with little
cloud cover thanks to nearby high pressure. Clear and dry
weather will continue into Monday night with the high pressure
remaining in place and temps down into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm weather will continue through the long term period with the
threat for showers and thunderstorms starting to return.

The long term period should start off dry for Tuesday, but an
isolated afternoon shower or t-storm can`t be ruled out by
Wednesday as moisture starts returning to the region. Forcing
should be limited through mid week, which will keep the threat
for precip fairly low. Temps will be very warm thanks to the
continued warm temps aloft, with mid 80s both days. Tuesday
should be mainly sunny, but some clouds will start to increase
by Wednesday.

As an upper level disturbance starts approaching from the Great
Lakes, there will be a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms for Thursday through Saturday. The upper level
feature looks to close off over the Great Lakes, making it
slowly sit and spin to our west, while a surface boundary makes
it way across the area (probably for Thursday, which is when
POPs are currently highest). With a warm and humid air mass in
place, both showers and t-storms will be possible, especially in
the diurnally favored afternoon and evening hours. Too early to
say if any storms will be strong at this point due to
uncertainty regarding the exact amounts of instability and shear
that will be in place. Will go with high chance to likely POPs
during this time period. Temps will be warm (although not quite
as high as earlier in the week due to the clouds and precip)
with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 and lows in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z/Mon, mainly VFR conditions expected with increasing
high clouds tonight/Sunday morning, with some mid level clouds
increasing later Sunday afternoon.

The only caveat could be some patchy ground fog forming at KGFL
for a brief time tonight, generally between 07Z-10Z/Sun. During
this time period, can not rule out a few brief periods of
MVFR/IFR Vsbys.

Winds will become light/variable shortly after sunset through
Sunday morning, then will become southwest to south at 5-10 KT
by afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...KL/Wasula