064
FXUS61 KALY 240730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
330 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A final day of dry weather is expected today with seasonable
temperatures. Increasing clouds this evening will precede rain
showers arriving from the west overnight tonight, ending two
weeks without accumulating rainfall across much of the region.
Unsettled weather will continue through Thursday before dry
weather returns Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Brief mid and upper-level ridging are building overhead early
this morning while surface ridging noses into the region from
the northeast, yielding yet another dry day. Some low clouds
will move into the Upper Hudson and portions of western New
England on easterly flow, while cirrus coverage spreads to the
northwest as a shortwave trough approaches from the Ohio Valley,
resulting in partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy by this
evening.

Overnight tonight, the aforementioned shortwave will arrive from
the southwest on the eastern flank of an upper trough. A closed
upper-level low will develop over the Mississippi Valley while
its parent northern stream trough continues to progress
eastward into southeastern Canada. Locally, low-level flow
turning out of the southeast will encourage modest warm
advection while synoptic support for ascent increases ahead of
the shortwave. Rain shower coverage will initially be isolated,
but will begin to fill in toward Wednesday morning as the main
northern stream trough makes its nearest approach. This will
mark the first accumulating rainfall for most of the region in
over two weeks.

Following morning lows in the mid 40s to low 50s, temperatures
will rise to near seasonal norms today, reaching afternoon
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and mid 60s to
low 70s at lower elevations. Beneath overcast skies as rain
showers arrive, slightly more mild conditions are expected
tonight, as temperatures fall to lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A positively-tilted upper-level trough will approach from the
west early Wednesday morning. A potent shortwave on its western
flank will continue to dive south over the Lower Mississippi
Valley as a closed low while the parent northern-stream trough
continues eastward from the western Great Lakes into southern
Quebec and northern Maine by Thursday evening. Rain showers will
be ongoing in areas north and west of Albany by early Wednesday
morning, and will continue to spread south and east through the
day, reaching their maximum coverage Wednesday night. Sufficient
elevated instability will be present to yield a few embedded
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday, however severe
weather is not anticipated.

Cool temperatures are expected during rain showers on Wednesday,
with afternoon highs only reaching the mid 50s to mid 60s
across the region. A relatively narrow diurnal range will yield
mild overnight lows largely in the 50s. The surface cold front
will pass through the region Thursday morning, when low-level
flow will pivot out of the southwest to west, and then out of
the northwest by Thursday night. Despite the frontal passage,
temperatures may actually be warmer on Thursday than the day
before, with afternoon highs in the 60s in high terrain and low
to mid 70s at lower elevations as rain showers begin to exit
eastward, narrow but high-amplitude upper ridging builds to the
west, and skies begin to trend clearer through the afternoon.
Overnight temperatures look to remain seasonable, falling to
lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Behind a departing shortwave, upper level heights will be rising
over the area for Friday, along with warming temps aloft. Upper
level ridge will be expanding eastward from the Great Lakes and
into the Northeast for the weekend into early next week, with
an Omega block setting up between the departing shortwave over
the western Atlantic Ocean and a closed low associated with a
decaying tropical system over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

As a result, dry weather is expected for Friday through the
weekend, as any moisture thanks to the remnant tropical system
will remain well southwest of the area. Skies should be partly
to mostly clear each day, although some late night or early
morning fog will be possible for valley areas.

With the warm temps aloft and decent amount of sun, temps will
be a little above normal. Valley areas should see highs in the
low to mid 70s, with 60s for the high terrain. Overnight lows
will be in the 40s to low 50s, with no chance for any frost or
freeze conditions yet.

Next chance for measurable rainfall may not be until at some
point towards the middle of next week when the block breaks
down and the upper level low off to the west finally is able to
approach the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites. IR satellite
imagery shows some patches of low stratocu and stratus clouds
around the region, with ceilings around 1500-4500 ft. The lowest
clouds have been near KPSF. Most of these are starting to
diminish, but will continue to allow a TEMPO at KPSF for brief
MVFR conditions. Otherwise, IR satellite imagery shows bands of
mid and high level clouds moving into the area from the west.
Will continue to mention these clouds for the late night hours.
With these clouds moving in (as well as the patches of lower
clouds currently in place), fog will have a hard time forming
early this morning, so won`t mention any mist or fog for this
morning. Winds will be light or calm through the rest of the
overnight hours.

Through the day on Tuesday, flying conditions should be VFR with
no precip. There will continue to be sct-bkn mid and high level
clouds around through the day. South to southeast winds will be
around 5 kts.

No precip is expected to start Tuesday night, but some showers
are possible by the late night hours and towards Wednesday
morning. Ceilings will be starting to lower with bkn cigs around
3500-5000 ft expected by Tuesday evening. South to southeast
winds will continue around 5 to 10 kts into Tuesday night.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Having last recorded measurable precipitation on September 9,
the dry spell in Albany reached 14 days on Monday, September 23.
This is the first two-week dry spell in Albany since May 11-25,
2021, when a trace of precipitation was observed over 15 days.

Furthermore, every day in the current dry spell has seen zero
precipitation, marking the first absolute dry spell of at least
14 days since October 4-26, 1963.

Tuesday, September 24 is expected to extend the dry spell to 15
days before widespread rain ends the streak on Wednesday.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
CLIMATE...Picard