330
FXUS61 KALY 300745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will continue to bring rain with isolated embedded
thunderstorms to the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics,
Litchfield Hills, and southern Berkshires into this morning.
Widespread cloud cover elsewhere will trend downward as high
pressure builds in from the west, bringing dry weather and
warming temperatures into the first weekend of June.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A surface low near the New York City area will continue to
track to the east-northeast through today, with an area of light
to moderate rain extending northward into the eastern
Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, central and southern Taconics,
Litchfield Hills, and southern Berkshires. Earlier embedded
thunderstorms have largely dissipated, but there may yet be a
few isolated rumbles of thunder through early this morning,
especially in far southeastern areas from Poughkeepsie east to
Torrington. Latest kenx radar returns show precipitation echoes
extending northward along the Hudson Valley and Berkshires, but
the lowest levels of the atmosphere remain fairly dry thanks to
northerly to northwesterly flow, with dewpoint depressions
remaining above 10 degrees per NYS Mesonet and regional ASOS
observations. Some light rain may eventually reach the surface
as the column moistens, but precipitation amounts will remain
light across the Capital District and into southern Vermont,
with storm-total QPF of about one to three quarter inches
farther south. Steady rain with embedded convection may result
in a few instances of minor nuisance flooding of low-lying or
urban areas in this region.

As the potent shortwave and associated surface low exit to the
east through the day today, rain showers will end in southeastern
areas by mid-morning, with skies expected to trend clearer as
heights aloft begin to rise by tonight. Following morning lows
in the 40s to low 50s for most and upper 30s in the southern
Adirondacks, temperatures will remain slightly below normal
beneath the cold pool within upper troughing and a cool
northerly to northwesterly breeze. Afternoon highs are expected
in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain, and upper 60s to
low 70s at lower elevations. With diminishing winds and clearing
skies overnight tonight, efficient radiative cooling will allow
temperatures to fall to low in the upper 30s to mid 40s across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Narrow but high amplitude upper ridging and associated surface
high pressure will build in from the west Friday into the
weekend, bringing continued dry weather and mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures trend upward through the period as northwesterly
flow on Friday begins to turn out of the southwest on Saturday.
Afternoon highs will be near normal on Friday, with 60s in high
terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations, and will reach
above normal on Saturday, with widespread 70s, a few upper 60s
in areas of highest terrain, and a few low 80s along the Hudson
River. Overnight lows similarly trend warmer with 40s expected
across the region Friday night and upper 40s to mid 50s on
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper level ridge looks to break down heading into the second
half of the weekend as an upper-level shortwave passes nearby or
just to our south. This shortwave looks a bit stronger compared to
recent runs and may contain enough moisture for an isolated shower
or thunderstorm, especially for areas west of the Hudson River.
Otherwise, it should remain a fairly seasonable day with comfortable
humidity levels. Highs should reach the 70s in most areas with some
valley locations around 80.

The upper-level pattern becomes a bit uncertain for early to mid
next week, but upper level ridging attempts to return across the
region with surface high pressure nearby or just off the East Coast.
Warmer and more humid conditions build across the region with the
potential for some pop up showers and thunderstorms on some days.
Coverage and best timing of these showers remains a bit uncertain
but no day looks to be a washout. Highs Monday through Wednesday
look to range from the mid-70s to mid-80s with lows in the mid-50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z/Fri...An upper level shortwave pushing across the mid-
Atlantic region will bring some periods of rain, mainly at KPOU,
through the remainder of the overnight. While cigs and vsbys should
largely remain VFR, some brief periods of MVFR will be possible up
to around 12z/Thu. The northern edge of the rainfall may reach KPSF
so maintained a tempo but kept vsbys/cigs VFR. Rain should largely
remain just to the south of KALB but close enough that a VCSH was
included until 12z/Thu. Even if light rain reaches KALB, no
restrictions to vsbys or cigs are expected. Rain will stay well
south of KGFL with VFR conditions continuing.

Rain will end early Thursday morning and a return to VFR conditions
is expected at all sites through the rest of the TAF period with
gradual clearing.

Wind will be mostly north to northwesterly at 4-8 kt through the
overnight, then increase to around 10 kt on Thursday with a few
gusts to 15-20 kt possible. Wind will then trend light to calm
Thursday night.

Outlook...

Thursday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today, a dry airmass and deep mixing will result in surface
dewpoints falling to the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region,
while temperatures in the 60s to low 70s will lead to minimum RH
values around 30 to 40 percent. Northerly winds of 5 to 10 knots
will gust to around 15 knots. Widespread rainfall of at least a
half inch earlier this week, with many observations of one to
three inches in areas of higher terrain, will be supplemented by
an additional soaking rainfall south and east of Albany early
this morning, acting to limit the risk of fire spread.
Therefore, Special Weather Statements for enhanced fire spread
are not being considered.

Friday may again feature marginal conditions for fire spread,
with minimum RH values of 30 to 40 percent and northwesterly
wind gusts of 15 t0 20 knots, however the recent rainfall will
again limit fire weather concerns.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Main/Picard