Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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730 FXUS64 KAMA 160516 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Increasing chances for rain through the week, with late Tuesday into Wednesday and Friday having the highest potential A low to moderate chance for severe thunderstorms and flooding will exist, favoring mid to late week. Above normal temperatures will continue though the first part of the week with highs in the 90`s, but a cooling tend is expected with highs in the 70`s and 80`s by the weekend. Brief periods of elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday and Wednesday across the far northwest combined Texas Oklahoma Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Heights aloft are decreasing for the next few days. Short term analysis and current observations show the 588 decameter line rising over much of the area, but then retreating southward as the day time hours come to a close. A large scale, robust upper level trough proceeds in its transition eastward. Moisture will surge alongside this trough; but until then, drier air remains in place across the CWA. A stable air mass has been left in the wake of yesterday`s thunderstorm activity with very shallow moisture profiles as shown by our 12Z sounding this morning. This subsidence is expected to erode later this afternoon as the advancing upper trough introduces a shortwave into the combined Panhandles. By the evening and night time hours another low level jet will set up across the Panhandles. It will develop a SW/NE orientation overnight with its strength ranging between 25-35 kts. The progress of the upper trough will also tighten the pressure gradient at the surface for today and tomorrow. Mostly southerly wind flow is expected, and wind profiles will remain breezy as the week begins. Highs today will persist well above average for this time of year. Though, 850 mb temperatures have come down compared to the previous two record breaking days. That alongside the aforementioned decreasing heights will result in highs ranging between the low to upper 90`s. Only a few isolated hot spots in the Texas Panhandle will see triple digits today, but not nearly as many as yesterday. Some limited fire weather concerns exist for the northwestern combined Panhandles today, as the lowest RH values and highest surface winds will be positioned in those zones this afternoon. That said, minimum RH values and surface winds do not quite meet criteria for any increase in maximum RFTIs. Perhaps only a brief window for elevated fire weather is possible, but that will quickly dissipate by the evening as RH values recover. A slight chance (10-24%) is in place for thunderstorms this evening once the subsidence aloft is pushed away from our area, and a shortwave trough enters the region. Currently based off of satellite, the main wave is traversing across central New Mexico and is expected to enter the Panhandles close to the 6-7 PM timeframe. A few isolated thunderstorms may hold together as they enter our CWA, but the limited instability and wind shear in our area will see them collapse not long afterwards. High based storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts similar to yesterday, but the lower forecasted DCAPE leads to lower chances for storms to produce damaging wind gusts. Nevertheless, a severe storm or two cannot be ruled out if local enhancements are made to the near storm environment. (<5%) Lightning induce fire start are also possible this evening, but fire spread is expected to be very limited in areas outside the northwestern Panhandles. Tomorrow, breezy surface winds will accompany warm temperatures across the CWA. Wind speeds should range between 10-20 mph, and high temperatures should be in the 90`s. The fire weather potential continues to be low and unfavorable, but a few isolated areas in the northwest could experience elevated fire weather conditions due to similar parameters from today`s fire weather concerns. Dry air entrainment is forecast to limit POPs across most of the CWA tomorrow, but CAMs suggest there could be some isolated development in the eastern and northeastern Panhandles tomorrow afternoon. Chances for storms to become severe are low again as the better instability is positioned east of our CWA. Still, a severe storm or two cannot be completely ruled out. (<5%) Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The main upper level low enters our CWA in the long term period and is forecast to bring multiple shortwaves across the region throughout the week. By the weekend, long range guidance suggest that a cut off low from the main trough will develop and transition across the area. Theta-E values are expected to increase areawide, while temperatures profiles should mostly remain the same through the work week. By the weekend, enough cloud cover and lingering precipitation could be sufficient to reduce day time highs. Mid and long range models have consistently shown two main days for the highest POPs across the combined Panhandles: Tuesday and Friday. Though chances are still at play each day this week, subsidence will be left behind the main action days and environmental recovery is needed before introducing the notion of widespread precipitation again. Concern for severe thunderstorms, despite being this far out, is rising due to the favorable upper pattern anticipated to unfold. That alongside modest to strong forecasted environmental parameters, gives us confidence in at least seeing the typical severe hazards occur in the region during these days. Damaging winds, large hail, and flooding seem reasonable for the primary hazards, but perhaps more could be introduced down the line as mesoscale parameters are resolved. The primary concerns with forecasting the threat lie within calculating the timing and areas most likely to be impacted. Confidence will rise as we approach the coming days, but we will continue to watch the trends for now. High temperatures throughout the week will consistently stay in the 80`s and 90`s until we enter the weekend. As early as Friday, we could see day time highs cool down into the 70`s and 80`s, especially in the northern zones, as cloud coverage and precipitation chances increase towards the weekend. Long range models have yet to display a true cold front entering our area within the next 7 days, but hints of one doing so are being shown beyond the extended. Rangel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Winds will become breezy out of roughly the south, around 15 kts gusting to 25 kts, throughout the day at all terminals. Gusts should subside some in the evening hours but winds will remain around 15 kts. Vanden Bosch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 93 65 92 64 / 10 10 20 50 Beaver OK 93 64 93 63 / 10 10 10 50 Boise City OK 89 62 88 57 / 10 10 30 60 Borger TX 97 68 96 65 / 10 10 20 50 Boys Ranch TX 94 65 92 62 / 0 10 40 60 Canyon TX 92 64 91 63 / 10 10 30 50 Clarendon TX 92 65 92 65 / 10 10 10 40 Dalhart TX 90 60 89 57 / 0 10 40 60 Guymon OK 94 64 91 59 / 10 10 20 60 Hereford TX 93 62 92 63 / 0 0 30 50 Lipscomb TX 94 65 93 66 / 10 10 10 40 Pampa TX 92 65 91 64 / 10 10 10 50 Shamrock TX 93 65 93 66 / 0 10 0 30 Wellington TX 94 65 95 67 / 0 10 0 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...52