689
FXUS64 KAMA 142334
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
634 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Hot temperatures in the 90`s and 100`s linger for today and
tomorrow.

Thunderstorms are possible each day for the next 7 days of the
forecast. The coverage areas and rain chances will alter from day
to day.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Thunderstorms have begun this afternoon and this activity is
expected to linger into the evening. Current mesoanalysis shows
instability between 1,000-2,000 J/kg from the surface, while
500-1,000 J/kg is present in the mixed layer. Inverted V profiles
this afternoon suggest that strong winds could spawn from these
developing storms. And if one creates a strong enough updraft the
result could be damaging winds from thunderstorm outflow.

Hot temperatures also continue this afternoon, with a handful of
sites already meeting or exceeding 100 degrees. Cloud coverage was
expected to limit the amount of areas that would see 100, but the
overall coverage was not expansive enough for the slightly cooler
outcome to occur. Tomorrow, highs will range in the 90`s once
again but there are concerns that the models are not handling the
late season heat as well as previously thought. That said, more
locations could see temperatures over 100 degrees and we will
still monitor the potential for the Palo Duro Canyon to see 105
tomorrow. For now, no heat related products are being issued.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Long range models agree on the general upper level pattern change
being introduced this week. A large scale upper trough is
advancing from the Pacific Northwest and should exit off of the
Rockies in the next few days. The remaining ridge of high pressure
will get displaced to the east. With the return of upper level
forcing and favorable moisture profiles, daily precipitation
chances remain in the CWA through the entire duration of the
extended period. The main concerns heading forward still consist
of the days with relative maximums for QPF and conversely the
relative minimums. The timing of each wave we receive this week
will dictate which days the highest coverage of POPs and QPF will
occur. Mid to long range guidance continues to diverge when it
comes to these prospects, as it is still difficult to discern the
small scale features necessary to effectively forecast the
precipitation expected to generate from the oncoming system. NBM
POPs were left alone for now since they are still reasonable for
the coming days. High temperatures this week will see some small,
but steady degradation throughout the week. Upper 80`s and 90`s
look to be the current range for the CWA; but by next weekend,
long range guidance suggest that we could exit the 90`s and
transition to 70`s and 80`s for highs instead.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Thunderstorm activity decreases for the rest of the evening. Most
of the activity has already moved away from all TAF sites, so no
mentions of thunder have been made. Just some lingering SHRA for
DHT. Winds throughout the night should be light to breezy for all
sites. By tomorrow afternoon, surface winds will increase again
from the south.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  95  65  93 /  20  10  10  10
Beaver OK                  60  96  64  93 /  10  10  10  20
Boise City OK              57  93  60  89 /  30  10  10  10
Borger TX                  65  99  67  97 /  10  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              64  96  64  94 /   0  10  20  10
Canyon TX                  65  94  63  92 /  10  10  10  10
Clarendon TX               64  96  64  93 /  40  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 58  92  59  89 /  20  10  20  10
Guymon OK                  58  95  62  93 /   0  10  10  10
Hereford TX                64  95  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
Lipscomb TX                63  96  65  93 /  40  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   64  95  64  92 /  20  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                65  96  64  93 /  40  10  10  10
Wellington TX              67  97  66  95 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55