Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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468 FXUS64 KAMA 201755 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1255 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Another hot day is expected today across the area, but especially along and south of the Canadian River. Have opted to warm temperatures a couple degrees above NBM given that the 850mb temperatures will be slightly less than a degree warmer than yesterday. Did not feel comfortable warming temperatures much more than a couple degrees as high clouds are expected to move in around mid-afternoon, but the southwesterly winds will strengthen some. Will not be issuing a Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon given the introduction of high clouds and unfavorable winds for heat enhancement in the Canyon(southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph) in the mid-afternoon. That said, still forecasting a high of around 103 degrees which is still quite dangerous for hiking activities. Otherwise, RH-driven elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions are anticipated in the western combined Panhandles. A shortwave trough will pass through tonight but no impactful weather is expected from it, but it will push the very warm 850mb temperatures out of the Panhandles. 850mb winds turn back to southwesterly during the day and will advect warm 850mb temperatures back into the area, but not nearly as warm as today. This will bring temperatures down into the upper-80s to mid-90s. A cold front will move into the Panhandles Tuesday night and potentially clear the CWA by the very end of this short-term period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Wednesday will feature a break from the hot, near-record breaking temperatures as highs fall to slightly below average to near average. Winds turn from easterly to southeasterly and low-level moisture will begin to return to the Panhandles Wednesday night. An embedded shortwave trough will move toward the Panhandles Thursday as a dryline mixes east throughout the day. The big question will revolve around how far east the dryline will push by the time forcing arrives in the mid-afternoon. At this time, it seems as though the easternmost stack of TX Panhandle counties is favored to stay east of the dryline; around 50-70% of LREF ensemble guidance have dew points greater than 60 degrees in the eastern TX Panhandle. If thunderstorms can develop east of the dryline, they would have the potential to become strong to severe with the primary threats being damaging winds and large hail. A weak cold front moves in from the north Friday but may not make it through the Panhandles before further weakening/retreating. A dry weekend is expected with gradually warming temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the new 18Z TAF period. Some breezy winds may be present at all sites later this afternoon, but those surface winds will diminish by the night time hours. As early as 05Z, but most likely a few hours afternoon midnight, strong low level wind shear is likely at all sites. Speed shear up to 50 kts may be had. These conditions look to persist until the morning hours around 12Z-14Z. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 62 90 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 61 91 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 55 86 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 64 93 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 60 91 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 60 90 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 63 91 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 53 87 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 58 88 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 59 91 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 63 92 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 63 91 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 64 93 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 65 96 58 82 / 0 0 0 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...55