250
FXUS63 KAPX 051037
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
637 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and storms today. Severe storms are not
  expected at this time.

- Unsettled weather will likely continue through next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 449 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified ridging will be pushed east of the Great Lakes as strong
troughing pivots overhead today and tonight. The main wave and
associated height falls look to spread overhead by this afternoon as
the associated jet max punches into the region this evening/tonight.
Meanwhile, the surface cyclone supported by strong forcing aloft
will spin across south/central Canada through the period as an
attendant cold front swings across northern Michigan this
afternoon/evening.

Forecast Details:

Widespread showers/storms today -- Showers and isolated storms will
continue to spread from SW to NE across the area this morning as
northward warm, moist advection persists. As was well discussed by
the previous forecaster, an impressively moist airmass in place
today will support the potential for locally heavy rainfall. PWAT
values in the ballpark of 1.75" across the guidance suite would
exceed both the max moving average and daily max values on
sounding climatology. While relatively faster storm motions may
help limit flash flooding potential, showers/storms are expected
to work over areas in Manistee county that received around 2"+
of rainfall yesterday -- potentially creating a locally higher
flooding threat across these areas. Otherwise, nearly
unidirectional SSW flow with moist profiles amidst forcing aloft
will support showers/storms along/ahead of the aforementioned
cold front across most of northern Michigan through this
afternoon/evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible where
any stronger storms track. Severe storms are not expected at
this time. Otherwise, a brief lull in rain chances is
anticipated later this afternoon into this evening as storms
clear from west to east ahead of additional shower chances later
tonight. Highs in the mid 70s to low 80s are anticipated with
cooler lows in the low 50s in store tonight after the frontal
passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 449 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Large and fairly deep upper level
closed low will be sliding towards the Great Lakes region Thursday
from western Ontario CA. There are a few model discrepancies with
the exact track of the upper lows center, however most guidance
consistently brings the center (or a part of the center) over the
U.P. by Thursday midday. A few waves will likely rotate around the
low, reinforcing clouds, chances for intermittent light rain, and
cooler temperatures. Friday, the center of the closed low will likely
have reached eastern Ontario/Lk Huron. Northwest winds near the
surface will move in cooler air, leading to decent chances for high
temperatures Friday being at or below 60. Clouds and more
intermittent light rain Friday will help to keep that cooler airmass
cool. Starting Saturday, uncertainty grows significantly. The upper
level low will likely be large enough to continue to influence
northern MI, continuing the wet and cool trend through the weekend.
Upper level ridging is hinted at near the end of the period (mid
week next week), and could return clear skies, warmth, and drier
weather.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Confidence lies in unsettled
weather continuing through next week for most of northern MI. The
uncertainty rests in details, when the precip will move in and how
cool temperatures will get. This is due to many little features
needing to play out ahead of the features in the longer term.
However, a more predominate parent cut off low will help keep the
overall trend unsettled. Nothing really scours out moisture,
ensembles show an average PW of 0.7" - 0.8" for the whole long term
period. This leads to rain amounts generally being light over the
longer term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread from SW to NE
across northern Michigan into this evening. A brief break in rain
chances is anticipated later this evening before chances return
again tonight. MVFR to IFR CIGs are anticipated for a time this
morning into this evening across parts of the area, particularly
northwest lower and eastern upper. Temporary drops to MVFR VSBYs are
also possible under heavier showers/storms. South winds around 10
kts with gusts to 15-20 kts will turn to west winds later this
afternoon/evening as a cold front swings through the area.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...DJC