353
FXUS61 KBGM 131748
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
148 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry conditions will continue today. A cold
frontal passage on Friday will bring a chance of showers and
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. High pressure builds
into the region with summer-like weather this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
920 am update...

A large high is off the coast providing us with dry warmer
weather today. High clouds are across the area ahead of the cold
front. Increased cloud cover and adjusted hourly temperature and
dewpoints today.

315 AM Update...

Some valley fog has developed for mainly areas east of I-81,
where there were some clouds hanging around yesterday and had
cleared out in the evening. Fog is expected to dissipate soon
after sunrise. Thursday will be warmer and dry with high
pressure sticking around for one more day. Highs in the low to
mid 80s expected.

Chances for rain showers and strong to possibly severe storms
remain for Friday as a front approaches. Instability parameters
look similar with every model run; 0-6 km shear remains around
50 knots, with CAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg. These showers
and storms appears to progress quickly, with storm development
likely to occur in the morning over Central NY, move south and
eastward through the afternoon, and mostly out of the area by
the evening hours. The main threat with any storm development,
whether strong to severe, will be wind, with possible hail with
convective initiation before these showers and storms form more
of a line heading south and eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold frontal boundary will sweep away any lingering showers and
thunderstorms during the evening. High pressure should fairly
quickly start to build into the region leading to some clearing
Friday night with lows in the 50`s. Winds look to stay high enough
to prevent fog formation at this time. High pressure should remain
in place resulting in a fairly tranquil weekend with highs
generally in the 70`s with 40`s and 50`s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The core of the previously mentioned high pressure looks to
strengthen southeast of our region pumping in increasing hot
and humid air into the region next week. This ridge should also
keep any organized frontal boundaries or lifting agents for
showers and thunderstorms north and west of the region. A stay
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out with the hot and humid airmass
over the terrain in our region each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday though. Low temperatures look to trend muggier into
the 60`s and perhaps 70 in a few spots. Ensemble guidance and
modeled 925 mb temperatures both show a high likelihood for most
locations getting into the 90`s by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Current maximum heat index values are currently forecasted to be
around 100 degrees each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 pm update...

VFR conditions expected through this TAF package. A cold front
moves through from north to south late tonight into Friday
afternoon. Some guidance suggests MVFR restrictions in scattered
showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Ceilings will drop to around
5k ft.

Southwest winds this afternoon will be 10kts with gusts up to 20
kts. Tonight winds will be less than 8 kts. Winds shift to west
Friday at 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Friday night...Restrictions possible in showers and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms, highest chances Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/TAC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...TAC