973
FXUS61 KBGM 261858
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
258 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will continue to diminish in coverage through the
afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to
lower 80s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is still possible
through early evening across Northeast Pennsylvania and the
Catskills. Our next system moves in late tonight into Monday
with locally heavy rain and a chance for thunderstorms. A few
storms may become severe Monday afternoon. Additional scattered
showers will linger through midweek, with drier conditions
expected towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
254 PM Update...

Still a fair bit of fair wx cumulus across the area, but expect
cloud cover to continue to diminish for the remainder of the
afternoon. High clouds will begin to increase from SW to NE this
evening, which along with increasing SE winds, should keep valley
fog from developing overnight. There`s still a chance for an odd
shower or thunderstorm to pop up in the Catskills and/or Poconos
this evening, but coverage will be limited.

A shortwave trough, currently bringing thunderstorms to the Ohio
Valley, will move northeast tonight, lifting a warm front northwards
and  bringing a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms across
the area after midnight. Additional rounds of showers will be
possible in a fairly messy warm sector during the morning and early
afternoon hours as additional upper level shortwave troughs move
through, and the broader area ends up under the right entrance
region of a 90 knot jet streak.

The "messiness" of the warm sector will be important later in the
afternoon as it will directly impact the amount of destabilization
that can occur ahead of the main shortwave and prefrontal surface
trough. By early afternoon, bulk layer shear will be around 35
knots, but more critically, 0-1km shear values will be 30-40 knots
across parts of NEPA and into the Catskills. This implies an all-too-
familiar local forecast dilemma of limited instability and high low
level shear which can lead to a tornado or two from a relatively low-
topped and grungy thunderstorm. SPC has put parts of NEPA into the
5% Tornado Risk in the Day 2 Convective Outlook, and has increased
the risk of severe thunderstorms to Slight Risk across all of our PA
counties, with Marginal for the balance of the region.
Destabilization will be key, and this given the shear values, the
greater risk could spread a little further east into the
Catskills, but much depends on how rainfall and cloud cover
holds in during the day tomorrow.

Localized heavy rainfall is also possible, but the risk of flooding
will be mitigated by a fairly progressive storm motion and forcing.
PW values still are on the high side, and spot flooding could still
occur in one or two areas where training of cells occurs. The most
likely area would be near and south/southeast of the I-88 corridor,
but the overall risk is too low for a flood watch at this time.

The heavy rain threat will push east of the area during the evening
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As the front associated with our storm system on Monday pushes
through our eastern areas later in the evening, showers and
thunderstorms will be tapering off overnight as cooler, drier
air filters in in its wake. Lows Monday night will range from
the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. A broad upper level trough will
push east Tuesday and settle in over the region through midweek
with several embedded shortwaves expected to rotate through.
This will lead to additional shower chances Tuesday and
Wednesday, which will be primarily diurnally driven. There has
been an uptick in instability on Tuesday and strong shear
appears to be in place, so if there`s any thunder, that seems to
be the better day.

Highs Tuesday are expected to be from the upper 60s to the mid
70s, then it trends cooler Wednesday with a more persistent
northwest flow in place with highs mainly in the 60s. Lows will
fall into the low and mid 50s Tuesday night, then drop well into
the 40s for much of the area Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
405 AM Update...

Despite the trough remaining overhead Thursday, there looks to
be a drier push of air moving over the region both at the low
and mid levels and this would help limit shower activity this
day. The cool, northwest flow will again lead to highs in the
60s for Thursday with lows in the 40s at night. An uptick in
moisture on Friday can lead to isolated showers, then the upper
trough finally looks to push off to the east allowing for
ridging to develop next weekend. This would lead to the return
of drier and warmer conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings have mostly mixed out across the area, or risen above
VFR levels, and will continue to do so through the afternoon.
High and mid clouds will increase tonight, followed by lower
clouds as showers return to the area after about 09Z. A few
embedded thunderstorms are possible as precip returns, but
fairly low probability at any given point. Shower coverage will
likely diminish Monday morning, only to return again towards
midday or early afternoon, with heavier downpours and thunder
becoming increasingly likely after the current TAF period ends.


Outlook...

Monday afternoon and night...Restrictions likely with locally
heavy rain showers and thunderstorms expected.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Occasional restrictions likely from
multiple batches of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MPK/MPH