502
FXUS61 KBGM 100815
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
415 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional scattered showers will be possible today. Drier
conditions will arrive Monday evening, and will last through
most of the week. A warm up is expected to start Tuesday, with
temperatures returning to above normal by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 AM Update:

Cyclonic flow continues today, but the stronger forcing will be
shifted east towards New England. The trailing edge of a
shortwave trough could kick off a few isolated showers today,
mainly across Central NY, but otherwise it will be a mainly dry
day. Plenty of lingering low level moisture trapped beneath an
inversion will keep skies mostly cloudy, but some partial
sunshine is possible in Northeast PA to the Catskills. With 850mb
temperatures only around +5C, it will be rather cool for June
standards with highs only in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Some
of the higher elevations of Central NY may not even get out of
the upper 50s for highs.

Any lingering showers will dissipate this evening with the loss
of diurnal heating. Lingering low-level moisture will keep skies
mostly cloudy, but if a few breaks in the clouds manage to
occur, some patchy valley fog will be possible. Lows are
expected to be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday will be the final day under the influence of the
stubborn upper level trough. Therefore, a few isolated showers
cannot be ruled out, mainly east of I-81. Elsewhere, it will be
mainly dry with partly sunny skies. Temperatures will remain a
bit below normal, but will be several degrees warmer than today.
Highs are expected to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 AM Update...

The upper level trough will continue to influence the weather in
our area for one more night as northerly flow combined with very
light winds in the mid levels keep a cool airmass overhead.
Temps Tuesday night will fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.

On Wednesday, SW flow returns to the area as a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the SW. A warmer airmass moves into the
region, bringing mid to upper 70s on Wed and mid to upper 80s on
Thursday. With the high pressure system comes very pleasant
weather, with partly to mostly sunny skies and dry weather.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
350 AM Update...

The mid week dry weather will not last long as another frontal
system will move into the area Friday morning, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day. A low
pressure system centered north of our CWA in Canada will slide
eastward Thursday night through Friday, pushing a front through
our area sometime early Friday morning to Friday afternoon. The
timing is still a little uncertain, but confidence is moderately
high that showers will start to enter the area from the NW
Thursday night and exiting the area by Friday evening. High
pressure builds into the region behind the front, bringing nice
and dry conditions to the CWA for the weekend. Temps will be
seasonable, in the 70s and 80s through the period.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lingering low level moisture continues to bring low clouds to
much of Central NY, with some occasional breaks. Ceiling
restrictions will mainly be MVFR to Fuel Alternate, but
occasional IFR ceilings will be

Guidance
is starting to come together on a Friday morning/early afternoon
possible as well, especially at
KBGM, KITH, and KRME. IFR restrictions ease by late morning, but
lingering MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions are expected to
lingering through most of the day and even into the evening.

KAVP likely remains VFR the entirety of the period, although
brief MVFR ceiling restrictions cannot be ruled out early this
morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJG