950
FXUS61 KBGM 091850
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
250 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few pop-up showers and thunderstorms will affect central New
York this afternoon. A more organized complex of showers and
isolated thunderstorms will roll through the area this evening.
Spotty showers will be possible through the night and into early
Monday. Drier conditions will arrive Monday evening, and will
last through most of the week, with a warm up expected to start
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a lake breeze boundary
have been slowly drifting south. Suspect these will mainly
decrease in intensity over the next hour or two given weak
instability and diminishing lake influence.

However, a shortwave trough over southern Ontario will provide
forcing for a more organized batch of showers and thunderstorms
which will sweep NW to SE across the area this evening. Again,
limited instability will limit thunderstorm coverage, but precip
coverage looks to be fairly high across CNY, then diminishing as
you head SE into NEPA.

Overnight will be mostly cloudy, but with fresh rainfall, patchy
fog will be possible, especially in any valley areas which
happen to see some breaks in the cloud cover. A spotty shower
or two can`t be ruled out through the night.

Cyclonic flow continues on Monday, but the stronger forcing will
be shifted east of New England. The trailing edge of a shortwave
trough could kick off a shower or two across CNY in the mid-
afternoon, but it`s looking to be a mostly dry day. Cloud cover,
however, will be tough to break up as forecast soundings show
nearly saturated conditions between about 925-800 mb or so,
trapped beneath a stout inversion. The drier air further aloft
will also help reduce the shower threat in addition to the weak
upper level forcing.

Monday night looks dry, with light winds, but again the cloud
cover might try to hang on, reducing the risk of valley fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

An upper trough gradually departing the area Tuesday can lead to a
couple of showers popping up in the afternoon over the Catskills and
Poconos, otherwise, it will be a quiet day with some sunshine.
Temperatures will still be running below average, but not a cool as
Monday with highs from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Lows will be
from the mid 40s to the low 50s at night. High pressure at the
surface and aloft builds in Tuesdsay night and is expected to remain
in control through Wednesday night promoting dry conditions.
Wednesday will be a pleasantly warm day under partly to mostly skies
and with winds becoming WSW, temperatures return to the mid and
upper 70s. Wednesday night won`t be quite as chilly with lows in the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
250 PM Update...

The warming trend continues Thursday into Friday as southwesterly
flow remains in place and temperatures range from the upper 70s to
the mid 80s with some valley locations hitting the upper 80s.

As the upper level ridge aloft begins to shift east and the flow
becomes more zonal, there is a slight chance of a shower Thursday,
mainly over north-central NY, with a weak shortwave passing near the
area, otherwise a partly sunny day is expected. Friday into Friday
night will be the next chance of showers and thunderstorms, however
there are some timing differences with the next upper trough and
associated surface cold front that is expected to move through. The
12Z run of the GFS has come in slower with the cold frontal passage
than the 00z run, coming more in line with the 00Z Euro and 12Z
Canadian favoring later in the afternoon or evening, but this will
be monitored. PWATs do look to top out around 1.50 inches across the
area, so there could be some embedded heavier downpours. Drier air
is expected to move back in for the weekend in the wake of the front
with a brief dip in high temperatures Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings have finally lifted to VFR across the area, and will be
predominate through the afternoon. A few isolated convective
showers, which could become thunderstorms, have developed across
north-central NY along a lake breeze-enhanced boundary. These
will be sliding off SE of SYR shortly.

Otherwise, a more organized band of showers and embedded
(isolated) thunderstorms is expected to push NW to SE across the
area this evening. Expect brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities
close to IFR as they push through the region, and diminish in
intensity as they move into NE PA.

MVFR ceilings behind the organized showers will slowly drop into
fuel alt range, with IFR possible before dawn at BGM and perhaps
ITH, the latter favored by wind direction. Ceilings will be
rather slow to rise on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Afternoon...Ceilings will be slow to lift into MVFR
range, then VFR by mid to late afternoon. Another round of
showers is also possible.

Monday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPH