131
FXUS61 KBGM 080545
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
145 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the region
tonight. Quieter weather will prevail on Saturday, with most
areas avoiding showers. However, rain will return late Saturday
night into Sunday, lingering into Monday afternoon. Drier
conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Heading into the late evening hours most of the showers have
dissipated with the loss of instability from today. Mesoscale
modeling does develop additional pop up showers along the NY
Thruway areas overnight.

Previous...

The most concentrated areas of showers early this evening
continue to be east of I-81 and near the Ny Thruway. Our
atmosphere has been fairly worked over so the coverage of gusty
showers and thunder should be on the decrease heading toward the
overnight.

A fairly right pressure gradient will result in steady west
winds this evening, which will limit or prevent valley fog
formation.

Saturday is shaping up to not be so bad. The upper trough will
be lifting out, with even a hint of mid-level ridging developing
late in the afternoon. So a few showers may affect north-central
NY early in the day, with just an isolated shower or two
possible through the early afternoon, but for most, it`ll be a
dry day, with temperature recovering into the 70s.

A fairly strong shortwave trough will push into the area from
the west late Saturday night (after midnight) into Sunday
morning, with widespread showers moving through the area. QPF
amounts look to be fairly light, in the 0.20 to 0.40 inch
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
305 PM Update:

A cold front and upper level shortwave trough are expected to
move through the area early Sunday with showers and in spots a
thunderstorm. With cyclonic flow persisting off the Great Lakes
and low heights above, additional diurnally driven scattered
showers are possible Sunday afternoon, mostly across CNY. A
rumble or two of thunder remains possible in the afternoon with
modest amounts of instability and borderline shear values. Much
of the area will be running below average temperature wise
Sunday with highs from the mid 60s to the low 70s. Areas north
of the Thruway can see lingering shower or two Sunday night
while the rest of the area is expected to dry out. Lows Sunday
night will range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s.

Another shortwave will drop down from the north and move into
the region Monday with additional scattered showers. PoPs are
expected to be highest across CNY (40-50%) before showers
dissipate Monday night. This feature will also reinforce below
average temperatures for the afternoon hours Monday with highs
in the low to mid 60s. A few valley locations may reach the
upper 60s. Widespread 40s are expected Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 AM Update:

As the shortwave trough slowly moves east Tuesday, there can be
an isolated shower that pops up, mainly over the Catskills,
then drier conditions are expected to return Wednesday as high
pressure builds in at the surface and aloft. The operational GFS
has trended drier this afternoon for Thursday, more in line
with the Euro and Canadian and their respected ensembles with
just a slight chance of a shower before our next cold front
looks to approach late in the week Friday.

Temperatures are expected to be gradually on the rise mid to
late week going from the 60s on Tuesday to the 70s and even low
80s in some places Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions currently across all terminals as come showers
stream across SYR/RME area. Guidance has backed off a little bit
on prolonged MVFR at SYR and RME. Looking upstream, there isn`t
any MVFR decks moving overhead, but scattered clouds around
FL025. Given this, TEMPOs were used for most of the night at SYR
and RME for MVFR decks. Chances for continuous MVFR decks
improve after sunrise so prevailing MVFR was included at SYR and
RME into the late morning hours.

ITH should see some TEMPO MVFR decks around sunrise, with a few
hours after prevailing MVFR decks through mid morning.

ELM/BGM/AVP will be VFR through the period.

Gusty winds of 20-25kts out of the WNW are expected across all
terminals for most of the daytime hours.


Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday...Occasional showers with brief
restrictions likely.

Tuesday...VFR likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPH/MWG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JTC