885
FXUS61 KBGM 121641
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1241 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build into the region today clearing
out the stubborn clouds. A cold frontal passage on Friday will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure with
more summerlike weather builds into the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1220 pm update...

Thick low clouds remain across the eastern two thirds of the CWA
still. Increased cloud cover there and lowered hourly and max
temperatures.

920 am update...

Lowered hourly temperatures mainly this morning. Highs changed
little. Cloudy skies continue over most of the area this
morning. It will take into afternoon before this starts to break
up and move east. Low level flow is still from the northwest
with cold air. The upper level trough has made it east to
eastern NY and New England. Still expecting the day to end
partly cloudy to clear except maybe in the far east such as
Oneonta and Delhi east.

previous discussion...
Removed any mention of fog with the sunrise update, discussion
below.

High pressure will slowly build into the region today. Stratus has
been very slow to lift and burn off across our region thanks in part
to a departing upper level low. Current thinking is the stratus will
burn off later this morning. With more in the way of sunshine
today temperatures should get into the 70`s.

Tonight with clearer skies and light winds patchy fog can not be
ruled out once again overnight. However, the winds look to be
slightly higher as weak southerly flow becomes realized. This should
also keep overnight lows from falling much below the 50-55 degree
range as well. High pressure looks to remain in place Thursday as
well with more summerlike conditions thanks to southerly flow on the
backside of the high. Most locations should get into the 80`s for
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update...

A cold front extending from an upper-level system will push into
Central NY Friday morning, and into NE PA by Friday afternoon.
This front will bring rain showers and storms, with a chance for
stronger storm development in NE PA and the Catskills. Depending
on the progression of this front, stronger to possibly severe
storms are currently most likely to develop in NE PA and the
Catskills, but could develop more north and west if the front
moves slower and allows for increasing instability parameters
where clear skies are ahead of the front. Although 0-6 km shear
greatly increases up to 40 to 50 knots, 0-1 km shear remains
weak; if any storms were to become severe, hail and wind would
be the main threats.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
320 AM Update...

After the front passes Friday, high pressure moves into the
area, leading to a warming trend and dry conditions. High
temperatures of high-60s to low-70s on Saturday will increase
into the high=80s to low-90s by Tuesday. Although we`re
approaching 6 to 7 days out in the long-term forecast, long-term
guidance hints at afternoon showers and thunderstorms for Monday
and Tuesday from a shortwave moving through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1240 pm update...

VFR this afternoon into Thursday afternoon. Skies will clear
later today but valley fog shouldn`t be a problem. Boundary
layer winds are 15 to 20 mph.

This afternoon west winds at around 5 kts. Tonight winds light
and variable under 5 kts. Thursday southwest winds at 5 to 10
kts.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms, highest
chances Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...TAC