247
FXUS61 KBGM 120714
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
314 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will slowly build into the region today clearing
out the stubborn clouds. The high pressure gives way to a cold
frontal passage Friday with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure with more summerlike weather builds
into the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

High pressure will slowly build into the region today. Stratus has
been very slow to lift and burn off across our region thanks in part
to a departing upper level low. Current thinking is the stratus will
burn off right around sunrise. A small window for some patchy fog is
still present just before sunrise but that potential is becoming
more uncertain. With more in the way of sunshine today temperatures
should get into the 70`s.

Tonight with clearer skies and light winds patchy fog can not be
ruled out once again overnight. However, the winds look to be
slightly higher as weak southerly flow becomes realized. This should
also keep overnight lows from falling much below the 50-55 degree
range as well. High pressure looks to remain in place Thursday as
well with more summerlike conditions thanks to southerly flow on the
backside of the high. Most locations should get into the 80`s for
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update...

The short term starts off warm with weak ridging ahead of a
through in the Great Lakes region. The trough begins to move
into our region Thursday night into Friday but with a jet max
moving in behind the trough, the wave will likely be flattening
out with weaker lift. Still warm air advection Thursday night
will help lead to some elevated instability so a few isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible late Thursday into early
Friday morning. Instability is weak aloft but 30 to 40 knots of
shear may help a couple of cells to strengthen with small hail
possible. Low level inversion in place will make it tough for
any severe wind to mix to the surface.

Friday, the shear continues to increase in the afternoon with
good probability of 0-6 km shear greater than 50 knots but the
surface trough looks to be east of the region by the late
morning into the afternoon and with a lack of a trigger, storms
may not develop. There is still uncertainty with the timing of
the 500 mb trough so if it slows and moves through later Friday,
there is a better risk for severe storms in the afternoon.
Forecast hodographs show most of the shear is above 3 km so the
main severe threats with the storm will be hail and wind. Dry
air advecting in aloft will help with dry air entrainment in any
storm helping to lead to the risk of microburst and downburst
with any deeper storm if they form.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
255 PM Update...

The long term starts off with NW flow advecting in dry air and
with sunny skies, it will likely be both warm and dry despite
the cooler air advecting in aloft. Much stronger ridging begins
to build in Sunday with temperatures rising above average for
this time of the year as well as higher dew points advecting in.
Chances of precipitation were bumped up to at least slight
chance for the afternoons next week with the heat and humidity.
Ensemble average 500 mb height are around 588 dm starting Monday
with deterministic models getting up over 590 dm which is about
2 standard deviations above climatology for June so it will be
getting toasty. One thing to watch is where the edge of the
Bermuda high sets up as we could end up in the ring of fire with
daily rounds of thunderstorms next week but most ensembles keep
the edge of the ridge north of us leaving us hot and humid.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR stratus across the region heading into the overnight.
This stratus should break up through the overnight presenting a
small window for patchy fog formation at KELM,KITH and KBGM from
08-12Z today. There is still some uncertainity with the stratus
clearing out in time, so included just TEMPO groups at this
time. Any lingering ceilings and fog should lift out by mid-
morning. VFR with light winds through the remainder of the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog at
KELM possible Thursday.

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, highest chances Friday
afternoon.

Saturday through Sunday...mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/KL
AVIATION...MWG