228
FXUS64 KBMX 121948
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
248 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024

This afternoon.

The forecast area is positioned between a stubborn upper low over
Northeast Maine and an elongated mid-level ridge that extends
from over portions of Arizona and New Mexico southward over
Northwest Mexico. There is a weakness in the mid levels over the
lower Mississippi River Valley Region. A stationary front remains
to our south, extending from near Houston eastward to across the
Florida Big Bend. Surface high pressure extends from Upstate New
York southwest toward the Ozarks of Northern Arkansas.

Partly cloudy skies will persist over the area as enough moisture
aloft will remain in place as a mid-level weakness moves
northeast over the area later this afternoon and into the evening.
A deep slug of dry air was sampled on the BMX 12/12z sounding and
much of the area will remain dry. There will be a small chance
late this afternoon into the early evening for areas generally
east of I-65 and near and southeast of I-85 to see a few showers
and storms. Winds will be from the east to southeast with speeds
from 4-8 mph. Highs will range from the middle 80s far northwest
to the low 90s far southeast.

Tonight.

The mid-level weakness moves overhead overnight and persists,
while the surface front to our south becomes aligned from the
southwest to northeast from offshore of the Louisiana coast to
near Tallahassee. A weak surface low continues to be progged to
develop, aided by the disturbance aloft. Will maintain a 10
percent chance of a few showers and storms overnight across the
far southeast portion of the area. Otherwise, dry conditions will
continue elsewhere with skies ranging from mostly clear northwest
to partly cloudy southeast. Similar to this morning, some brief
patchy fog may form near the Coosa and Tallapoosa water features
and perhaps some development may occur across the far northwest
before sunrise Thursday morning. Winds will be from the east to
northeast with speeds from 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range
from the low 60s north and west to near 70 far southeast.

Thursday.

The mid-level weakness will expand, extending from over the
Northeast Gulf of Mexico northeast to over the Southern Mid
Atlantic States. The stationary front to our south will move
further east as a cold front, advancing into Central Florida by
early afternoon. Broad surface high pressure will build further
into the area from the northwest as mid level ridging expands east
over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley.

Partly cloudy skies are forecast through the morning with
isolated showers and a few thunderstorms possible, generally
across the eastern portion of the area through late morning. This
activity will shift east of the area by the afternoon as the
surface front moves further away from the area. Dry conditions
will return areawide by the afternoon with decreasing clouds
across the east and southeast. Winds will be from the east and
northeast at 5-8 mph. With rising heights and higher surface
pressures, high temperatures will start to increase with readings
from the low 90s far northwest and in the higher terrain east to
the mid 90s across much of the south and southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024

Temperatures will run above seasonal normals most notably through
the weekend as an upper-level ridge axis translates across the
Gulf Coast region. High temperatures in the middle to upper 90s
are likely with 60s dew points nudging heat index values upwards
of 102 degrees. High temperatures look like they will be near
record (daily) values. Periodic chances for showers/storms may
commence early next week though model spread continues at this
range regarding the breadth of activity.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Expect mainly
scattered high clouds this afternoon into the evening. There will
be a very low chance for a few showers or storms across the far
southeast, near TOI, but potential was too low to include. Some
brief patchy fog may again develop near the Coosa and Tallapoosa
rivers before sunrise on Thursday and there will be similar
potential across portions of our northwest counties. Scattered mid
and high clouds are forecast on Thursday with isolated showers
with a few storms possible that may affect MGM, TOI, ASN and ANB
but chances are too low to include for this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There is a slight chance for a few showers or storms across
eastern Alabama on Thursday with no rain currently forecast for
Friday and Saturday. 20-foot winds should average less than 7 mph
with directional variability over the next couple of days.
Afternoon minimum RHs are expected to remain above critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  93  68  95 /   0  20   0   0
Anniston    65  93  69  95 /   0  20   0  10
Birmingham  65  95  70  96 /   0  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  64  95  68  97 /   0  10   0   0
Calera      64  94  70  96 /   0  10   0   0
Auburn      69  93  72  96 /  10  20   0  10
Montgomery  67  95  72  97 /   0  20   0  10
Troy        68  95  71  97 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...05