650
FXUS64 KBMX 110607
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
107 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

The cold front has pushed south of Central Alabama and all rain
chances have ended. Surface high pressure will build into the
region through Tuesday with cooler and drier conditions. The
temperature and dew point trends were running just short in the
north, which means its cooler and drier, while southern locations
are still transitioning. Our forecast lows north are already on
the cold end of guidance and will leave there due to our trend. It
will be a cool night, especially north, for June. Lows well into
the 50s north and lower 60s south. The skies will be partly cloudy
as cirrus will continue drifting overhead. These high clouds
continue on Tuesday with high temperatures in the 80s.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

Tonight.

Broad ridging will continue to build over much of the Plains
while the longwave trough becomes positioned further to the
northeast with time. Strong and expansive surface high pressure
centered across the Western Great Lakes will build further
southward overnight while the cold front moves south along the
Northern Gulf Coast. Mostly clear skies will be found for all but
the far southern counties where partly cloudy skies may persist
for a longer time. A few lingering showers and a stray storm also
may remain across our far southeast counties through the evening,
followed by a return to dry conditions across the entire area
after midnight. Due to the cooler temperatures and light winds
overnight, some patchy fog may develop near and along river and
lake areas before sunrise on Tuesday morning. Winds will be from
the north at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from the mid 50s
far north to the low 60s far southeast.

Tuesday.

id-level ridging will build further into the region on Tuesday
while the mid-level trough becomes positioned over the East Coast.
The front to our south will become stationary across much of the
Northern Gulf Coast while expansive surface high pressure extends
from the Northeast southwest across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley
Regions through the Mid-South Region. Mostly sunny skies are
forecast areawide with winds from the north at 4-8 mph. High
temperatures will range from the low 80s far northwest to around
90 southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

As an upper-level ridge center approaches and then scoots across
the Gulf Coast region later this week, high temperatures are
forecast to climb 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals, topping out
in the middle to upper 90s. Forecast soundings show relatively dry
low levels so, daytime mixing, combined with non-southerly
surface winds, looks to keep dew points in check at least.

The upper-level ridge axis is progged to shift toward the Atlantic
Seaboard early next week as a trough moves across the central
CONUS. This setup should help guide an area of low pressure over
the Gulf of Mexico toward the coastline. Flow around this feature
should result in increasing PWATs/dew points early next week.
While guidance varies on where the main plume of tropical rains
will track, we should have some opportunity for showers and
storms.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as drier air
settles over the area. Cirrus will stream across the area with
calm winds overnight. Northerly winds increase to 5-6kts Tuesday
morning.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels
over the next few days. 20-foot winds should run at or less than
7 mph as well, from a northerly heading Monday through Wednesday.
No rain is forecast through the week, aside from an isolated shower
or storm south of Interstate 85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  57  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    85  59  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  85  62  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  87  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      87  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      88  65  89  69 /   0   0  10   0
Montgomery  88  64  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        89  64  91  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...14