643
FXUS64 KBMX 110049
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
749 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

This afternoon.

An upper low is positioned northeast of Maine with a longwave
trough extending from the low southwest over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley Regions while amplified ridging continues to
build over the Central and Northern Plains. A surface cold front
was located across Southern Pike and Barbour Counties, where
showers and some thunderstorms have recently developed. A few
showers have recently formed over East-Central Russell County as
well where enough moisture remains in the low to mid levels.

Expect mostly sunny skies north with partly to mostly cloudy
skies over the southern counties this afternoon. Dry conditions
will continue across the northern counties with low-end PoPs
generally near the Interstate 20 corridor with Isolated shower and
storm chances generally south of a line form Centreville to
Wedowee through late afternoon while higher PoPs will be confined
across South-Central Pike and Barbour Counties. Winds will be from
the north at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from near 80
far northeast in the higher terrain to near 90 far southeast.

Tonight.

Broad ridging will continue to build over much of the Plains
while the longwave trough becomes positioned further to the
northeast with time. Strong and expansive surface high pressure
centered across the Western Great Lakes will build further
southward overnight while the cold front moves south along the
Northern Gulf Coast. Mostly clear skies will be found for all but
the far southern counties where partly cloudy skies may persist
for a longer time. A few lingering showers and a stray storm also
may remain across our far southeast counties through the evening,
followed by a return to dry conditions across the entire area
after midnight. Due to the cooler temperatures and light winds
overnight, some patchy fog may develop near and along river and
lake areas before sunrise on Tuesday morning. Winds will be from
the north at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from the mid 50s
far north to the low 60s far southeast.

Tuesday.

id-level ridging will build further into the region on Tuesday
while the mid-level trough becomes positioned over the East Coast.
The front to our south will become stationary across much of the
Northern Gulf Coast while expansive surface high pressure extends
from the Northeast southwest across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley
Regions through the Mid-South Region. Mostly sunny skies are
forecast areawide with winds from the north at 4-8 mph. High
temperatures will range from the low 80s far northwest to around
90 southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

As an upper-level ridge center approaches and then scoots across
the Gulf Coast region later this week, high temperatures are
forecast to climb 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals, topping out
in the middle to upper 90s. Forecast soundings show relatively dry
low levels so, daytime mixing, combined with non-southerly
surface winds, looks to keep dew points in check at least.

The upper-level ridge axis is progged to shift toward the Atlantic
Seaboard early next week as a trough moves across the central
CONUS. This setup should help guide an area of low pressure over
the Gulf of Mexico toward the coastline. Flow around this feature
should result in increasing PWATs/dew points early next week.
While guidance varies on where the main plume of tropical rains
will track, we should have some opportunity for showers and
storms.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

A cold front has moved south of the area early this evening.
Convection that developed near this boundary has also moved south
of all terminals and nothing additional is anticipated through the
period. High pressure and drier conditions will continue filtering
into Central Alabama the next 24 hours. The only expected clouds
will be cirrus at high levels and therefore VFR conditions. Patchy
fog may develop near water bodies and normally cooler locations
overnight but this should have little impact on any terminals.
Winds will become calm to light northerly overnight. On Tuesday,
winds will become north around 7kts.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels
over the next few days. 20-foot winds should run at or less than
7 mph as well, from a northerly heading Monday through Wednesday.
No rain is forecast through the week, aside from an isolated shower
or storm south of Interstate 85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  85  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    57  85  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  59  86  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  60  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      59  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      62  88  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  62  88  64  89 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        63  89  65  91 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...75