061
FXUS64 KBMX 100336
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1036 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch for a large part of Central Alabama
has been cancelled. Although a few storms may become strong
overnight, no widespread severe weather is expected. There will be
thunderstorm chances overnight as a cold front slowly moves north
to south over the area. Made some adjustments to the rain chances
overnight with the best chance north. It still looks like the
northern areas will drop off into the 60s while southern areas
remain mild in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

Monday.

The national flow pattern amplifies on Monday with longwave
troughing over the Tennessee Valley extending northeast toward the
upper low located just northeast of Maine while ridging builds
over much of the Plains. The surface cold front will continue to
advance south toward the Gulf Coast through the day. Decreasing
clouds are forecast across the northwest half of the area while
lingering clouds with chances for shower and thunderstorm activity
will continue across the southern half of the area through the
morning hours, becoming increasingly confined to the far southeast
counties after noontime. Dry conditions will return areawide by
the evening hours. Winds will be from the northwest areawide with
speeds from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the low
80s far north and in the higher elevations east to readings around
90 across the far southeast counties.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

The main focus during the week will be on increasing heat and
potential heat-related impacts as we reach the warmest temperatures
so far this year towards the end of the week. Upper-level troughing
over the Southeast and a large region of high pressure over the
Central US will drive northeasterly flow across Central Alabama and
highs in the mid 90s. Otherwise, the forecast remains dry for much
of the earlier half of the week with small opportunities for rain
across the far south related to inverted troughing over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

86/Martin

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

A significant upper-level trough east of the Mississippi River and
the associated confluence zone will support relative high pressure
moving southward into the Ohio Valley and southern states. A
cooler and much drier airmass will be advected from the north
Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s
from north to south. Dry conditions and low relative humidity
values should continue Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
remains in control under northwesterly flow at 500 mb.

While moisture will gradually increase Thursday through Saturday,
the arrival of increased rain chances could be delayed. Models are
trending toward more ridging across the Deep South, keeping a
disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico south of our area through
Saturday. Our latest forecast significantly undercuts the NBM POPs
Thursday through Saturday, and it is possible that most of the
forecast area remains dry.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

All terminals start VFR. There are several small scale boundaries
that may produce storm initiation early this evening. Mentioned
varying degrees of thunder for several hours at the northern
terminals with ceilings eventually into MVFR and possibly IFR at
times. The timing and placement of convective development at the
southern sites was less clear and mentioned only PROB30 on Monday
for now. If the storms organize north, an update for storms may
become necessary. A cold front will move north to south over the
area later tonight into Monday with winds becoming north to
northwest 5-10kts and rain chances becoming confined to the south.

Some of the storms tonight may produce damaging winds and large
hail.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels
over the next few days. Overnight RH recovery should be in the
upper 70s to low 90s. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7
mph over the next few days, west-northwesterly today, and
northerly on Monday. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur late
this afternoon into tonight as a front moves across the area.
Additional isolated to scattered showers are possible Monday
afternoon across the southern half of the area as the front
finally clears the area. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday
through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  83  57  84 /  60  20   0   0
Anniston    67  83  58  85 /  50  20   0   0
Birmingham  68  84  61  85 /  50  20   0   0
Tuscaloosa  70  86  61  86 /  50  20   0   0
Calera      68  85  62  85 /  40  20   0   0
Auburn      70  86  65  86 /  30  30  10   0
Montgomery  72  87  66  87 /  30  30  10   0
Troy        71  89  66  88 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....86/Martin
AVIATION...75