262
FXUS64 KBMX 121746
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2024

An upper level weakness within broad ridging will slide across the
Lower Mississippi River Valley today and over the northern Gulf
Coast tomorrow. At the surface, a front remains well to our
south, located from near Jacksonville to New Orleans, while
surface high pressure continues to stretch from New England to
Texas.

Today, humidity values remain relatively low, with mostly sunny
skies and warming temperatures. Highs will be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s. Lows tonight will be in the 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday, low level easterly flow increases on the north side of a
weak surface low in the northern Gulf. A few showers or storms
could develop across the southeast in the vicinity of upper level
troughing and a weak inverted surface trough. Highs will continue
to warm, with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2024

Hot and dry conditions will take hold across the region on Friday as
a deep layer ridge moves eastward from the Southern Plains. This
ridge will continue moving eastward through the weekend and become
centered over Georgia on Sunday. During this stretch, temperatures
are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s each afternoon. Dewpoints
in the mid to upper 60s should keep heat indices in the 95 to 102
degree range.

We continue to observe significant disagreement in model guidance
regarding a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and the associated
slug of tropical moisture. The ECMWF continues to indicate a ridge
holding firm over the Southeast CONUS through Tuesday with isolated
diurnal convection. However, the GFS now splits the Gulf disturbance
in two with a portion of it heading for Mississippi and Alabama. The
GFS has been overzealous with the development of a tropical
disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico for many days while also being
inconsistent. For this forecast update, POPs continue to be aligned
with the drier scenario portrayed in our previous forecasts.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Expect mainly
scattered high clouds this afternoon into the evening. There will
be a very low chance for a few showers or storms across the far
southeast, near TOI, but potential was too low to include. Some
brief patchy fog may again develop near the Coosa and Tallapoosa
rivers before sunrise on Thursday and there will be similar
potential across portions of our northwest counties. Scattered mid
and high clouds are forecast on Thursday with isolated showers
with a few storms possible that may affect MGM, TOI, ASN and ANB
but chances are too low to include for this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Other than isolated rain chances in the far southeast Thursday
afternoon, rain free conditions are expected through Saturday.
RHs are forecast to remain above critical thresholds, dropping as
low as 30-35 percent at times, each afternoon. Overnight RH values
recover to above 85 percent tonight and Thursday night. 20-foot
winds at less then 6mph will have some directional variability
through Saturday due to the influence of surface ridging.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  93  66  94 /   0  20   0   0
Anniston    65  93  68  95 /   0  20   0  10
Birmingham  65  95  69  96 /   0  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  64  95  69  97 /   0  10   0   0
Calera      64  94  70  96 /   0  10   0   0
Auburn      69  93  71  96 /  10  20   0  10
Montgomery  67  95  72  97 /   0  20   0  10
Troy        68  95  71  97 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05