Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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583 FXUS64 KBMX 081713 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1213 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024 Broad ridging will persist over the area with surface high pressure centered across Middle Tennessee. This will result in conditions through tonight. A few disturbances will rotate east around the ridge, resulting in showers and storms to our north, with just mid to upper level clouds spreading southward into our north. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s north and northeast to the low 90s south and southwest. On Sunday, a trailing cold front will push southward through the Tennessee Valley. Convection should mainly remain to our north through the morning and early afternoon. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to spread into north Central Alabama mid to late afternoon and through the evening, as the front drifts southward and outflow boundaries interact with a conditionally unstable airmass characterized by 2000-2500 J/kg CAPE and 35-45kts of bulk shear. Strong storms are possible across the north and will need to monitor the trends as we get closer. Convective temps are rather high given warm low levels, and development will depend on outflow boundaries or the difficulty of timing the arrival of the front, due to the zonal flow aloft. In addition, dry air at the surface should prevent too much from developing in the south and central sections. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024 We have a much clearer picture of the long term period than 24 hours ago with the GFS finally coming into agreement with the ECMWF. A large trough over the eastern CONUS will deliver a cold front to our area Sunday night into Monday. Modest upper-level support and lift near the front may be sufficient for isolated or scattered showers and storms Sunday night through Monday afternoon. A cooler and much drier airmass will be advected from the north Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s from north to south. Dry conditions and low relative humidity values should continue Tuesday and Wednesday. An increase in moisture and rain chances may take place on Thursday and Friday with the possible development of a subtropical low in the Gulf of Mexico. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Mid and upper level clouds will be thicker across the northern portion of the area while mostly clear conditions will prevail across the south this afternoon and evening. Mid and upper cloud cover will slowly increase over the northern sites overnight into Sunday with some shower and thunderstorm activity possible near the northern terminals through the mid to late morning, but potential is too low to mention at this issuance. This potential looks to be greater near and past the end of this cycle while dry conditions will continue across the southern sites. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filters into the area behind a cold front, with rain free conditions expected areawide through tonight. Minimum RH values will range from 28 to 38 percent this afternoon. 20ft winds will vary from northwest to southwest by this afternoon and remain at or below 7 mph. Rain chances return to the north Sunday afternoon, with minimum RH values ranging from 35 to 40 percent in the far southeast, and 40 to 55 percent elsewhere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 62 91 65 84 / 20 30 20 20 Anniston 64 92 68 85 / 0 30 20 20 Birmingham 68 94 69 85 / 0 20 20 20 Tuscaloosa 66 96 70 87 / 0 20 20 20 Calera 65 94 70 87 / 0 20 20 20 Auburn 66 93 71 87 / 0 20 20 20 Montgomery 65 94 72 90 / 0 0 20 20 Troy 65 95 71 90 / 0 0 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...05