262
FXUS64 KBMX 120020
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
720 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

Tonight.

Broad ridging aloft will be positioned over the Mid Mississippi
River Valley Region overnight while the stationary front remains
to our south and surface high pressure extends from Upstate New
York southwest into the Central Plains.

Look for mostly clear skies tonight. Some brief patchy fog may
develop near water features before sunrise on Wednesday. Winds
will be from the north from 2-5 mph. Low temperatures will range
from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s far southeast.

Wednesday.

A weakness in the mid-levels will move southeast over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley during the day Wednesday that will
support a surface low to develop along the stationary front to our
south. This feature will remain to our south but will move
eastward through the day generally paralleling the Interstate 10
corridor.

Skies will range from mostly sunny northwest to partly cloudy
southeast on Wednesday. There will be a very small chance for a
few showers or a stray storm to develop across our east and
southeast counties in association with the surface low to our
southeast during the afternoon, but residual dry air aloft looks
to be a major limiting factor. I did draw in some PoPs but kept
them below 10 percent based upon current thinking that dry
conditions will likely prevail. Winds will become more east
through the day with speeds from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will
increase areawide, ranging from the upper 80s far northwest to the
low 90s south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

As an upper-level ridge axis moves across the Gulf Coast region,
high temperatures are expected to run 5-10 degrees above seasonal
normals, in the middle to upper 90s. Within the upper end of that
range, highs would end up in record territory during the Friday
to Sunday time frame. Might a couple communities hit 100? Daytime
low-level mixing looks to keep dew points from being too high,
averaging in the 60s during the late morning to afternoon, so that
will keep it from feeling excessively muggy, though still
noticeable.

Moisture content should be on the increase next week and we may
get in on some shower/storm chances, in part pending the evolution
of a Gulf area of low pressure, though nothing too meaningful for
our area at this juncture.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

Almost a repeat performance of the past 24 hours. A front was
draped along the Gulf Coast while high pressure was centered to
our north northwest. Cirrus will continue to stream overhead and
be the only cloud cover. Winds will become light and variable to
calm overnight and Monday will see a varying wind direction by
location but remaining 5kts or below.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No rain is expected through the week as a high pressure system
advances upon the region. RHs are forecast to remain above
critical thresholds. 20-foot winds will be from the north today,
with some directional variability across central Alabama on
Wednesday and Thursday between northeast to southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  89  62  92 /   0  10   0   0
Anniston    59  90  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
Birmingham  61  91  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  59  90  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      60  90  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      64  90  70  91 /   0  10   0  10
Montgomery  62  91  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        63  93  68  94 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...75