432
FXUS64 KBMX 151856
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
156 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024

Key Messages:
- The combination of high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
  with increasing humidity will create heat index values near and
  just over 100 degrees this afternoon.

This afternoon.

Broad mid-level ridging was centered over Central Mississippi
while strong and expansive surface high pressure was centered over
the Eastern Great Lakes Region. A weak surface boundary is
analyzed from west to east across the area, generally along
Interstate 20. However, analysis of surface thermal and moisture
fields show very little to no differentiation across this feature.
The presence of the boundary may provide sufficient low-level
convergence to support a few pop-up showers and possibly a storm
or two this afternoon and into the evening due to the high
temperatures forecast across the area. Any development would be
widely isolated and localized due to relatively slow storm
motions. The combination of increasing humidity with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will create heat index values
generally from around 100 to near 104 with the higher readings
expected across portions of the south and the west. Winds will be
from the east to southeast at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will
range from the mid 90s in the higher elevations east to the upper
90s south and west.

Tonight.

Mid-level ridging will remain in place to our west while a weak
mid-level disturbance moves north toward the area from the
southeast. This feature may be accompanied by a low-level surface
trough reflection that would be across the southern portion of the
state this evening and slowly lift northwest overnight. The
presence of this additional boundary in the lower levels will also
contribute to widely isolated shower and storm potential this
evening. Winds will be from the southeast at 3-6 mph. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 60s far east to the low and
mid 70s west and central.

Sunday.

Mid to upper level ridging will become positioned overhead while
a lingering weak disturbance looks to continue to advance
northwest with time on Sunday. The surface front will stall over
the area and begin lifting northward as warm front into Sunday
while the surface trough moves northwest with time. These
features, along with any outflow boundaries from convection today,
will provide more support for surface convergence and result in
slightly higher potential for showers and some thunderstorms that
would be most likely to develop in the heat of the day. Winds will
be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range
from the lower 90s in the higher elevations east to the mid to
upper 90s elsewhere.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024

Long term forecast is on track this afternoon, with only minor
adjustments to pops.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024

A deep-layer ridge will be centered over North Carolina on Monday,
opening the door to south-southeast flow in the 850-500 mb layer
across Alabama. This will lead to a significant increase in PWAT
values over the western third of our state. A moisture gradient
from west to east will correspond with POPs ranging from 50
percent along the AL/MS state line to 20 percent on our eastern
border. The ridge axis will swing back to the west on Tuesday, and
as flow becomes more easterly, PWAT values should drop below 1.5
inches across most of the area. Accordingly, any showers and
thunderstorms should be isolated in nature and confined to our
western counties.

A large area of subsidence and below normal moisture content will
persist across the region for Wednesday and Thursday with no rain
expected. A tropical wave embedded within easterly flow could
begin to reach our eastern counties on Friday along with a slight
increase in rain chances.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. A very small
chance for a pop up shower or storm is forecast later this
afternoon into the evening. Expect light winds overnight with
scattered lingering clouds over the area followed by an isolated
chance of a pop up shower or storm on Sunday with best potential
during the afternoon through early evening hours.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A few showers or storms are possible this evening, with dry
conditions overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
Sunday afternoon across much of the area, although coverage still
looks to be fairly limited. 20- foot winds will be light and
variable through Sunday morning, becoming southeasterly up to 6-8
mph through Monday evening. Afternoon min RH values are expected
to drop into the 35-45 percent Sunday, and remain above 40 percent
on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  96  70  92 /  10  30  10  20
Anniston    72  95  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
Birmingham  74  98  74  92 /  20  20  10  30
Tuscaloosa  73  98  75  90 /  20  20  10  40
Calera      72  97  74  92 /  20  20  10  30
Auburn      72  95  74  90 /  20  20  10  20
Montgomery  73  97  74  91 /  10  20  20  30
Troy        71  95  72  91 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05