569
FXUS65 KBOI 062003
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
203 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...The short term
will be dominated by an amplifying upper ridge. Highs today will
be about 10 degrees above normal, warming to 15-20 degrees above
normal on Saturday. Clouds/storms today may limit surface
warming in certain areas, but their extent is forecast to be
limited to the ID-NV border on Friday and Saturday so confidence
is higher in hot temps on these days. The rest of today will
continue to be active with showers and a few storms. Outflow gusts
around storms could be up to 40-50 mph, but the current radar
situation seems to favor the lower end of that range if
anything. Precipitation is fairly high based, limiting
precipitation on the ground and favoring virga. Storms may be
directed into portion of the Snake Plain with the SW flow aloft,
but they will struggle to stay together as they move out of the
SW Highlands. Precipitation cuts off around midnight tonight. As
mentioned previously, unsettled conditions will continue for the
short term, as Friday afternoon/evening storms develop again.
They are much more limited, forming mainly near the ID-NV
border. Precipitation chances increase again Saturday evening
ahead of a quick trough in the long term. There may be some haze
or patchy smoke south of Rome, Oregon due to a fire south of the
Owyhees.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...An upper level low moves
inland on Sunday. With moisture already present, this injection
of energy makes Sunday the most active looking day for this
forecast. The trough also brings PW values in the 90th
percentile, just under 1". Precipitation chances stay elevated
through the day, with a 10-30% chance for lower valleys and
30-50% chance for higher terrain. While temps cool by about 5
degrees from Saturday, there will still be enough instability to
support a 20% chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms, mainly
over terrain. Drier westerly flow sets in on Monday through the
rest of the long term. The gradient of this flows stays fairly
decent, meaning afternoon winds after Monday will be breezy. The
zonal characteristic will hold our temps mostly steady at about
10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with scattered-broken mid and high level clouds,
decreasing after Fri/03Z. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly south of a KBNO-KONO-KSNT line, ending most
areas by Fri/03Z. Low confidence (less than 30 percent chance)
of any shower/storm reaching a terminal. Stronger storms will be
capable of producing gusty outflow winds to 45 kt. Surface
winds: variable up to 10 kt, except gusty near storms. Winds at
10k ft MSL: SW-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mostly south and
east of the terminal until Fri/03Z, but there is a 10% chance
of thunderstorms within 5 miles. Erratic outflow wind gusts are
also possible from nearby storms, otherwise surface winds
remaining less than 10 kt.

Weekend Outlook...VFR, except MVFR conditions with stronger
thunderstorms. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms in
areas near the Nevada border on Friday, portions of SE Oregon
and near the ID/NV border Saturday, and all areas on Sunday.
Highest confidence of convection is Sunday. Gusty outflow winds
will be possible from showers and storms. Otherwise, surface
winds generally W-NW 5-15 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....BW