256
FXUS65 KBOI 120239
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
839 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery has detected at least four
active wildfires in Southwest Idaho: two near Twin Falls, one in
south Ada County, and one south of Jordan Valley. As of 7:30 PM
MDT, all fires have been reported to be less than 10 acres.
Smoke is not expected to be an issue across southern Idaho at
this time due to an upper-level low moving across southern
Alberta, Canada, accompanied by a dry cold front that has
already reached parts of southeast Oregon. This front will
continue moving southeast, reaching Ontario around 10 PM MDT,
Boise around 11 PM MDT, Mountain Home around 1 AM MDT, and Twin
Falls/Jerome around 3 AM MDT.

The highest winds tonight will be between Baker Valley and the
Lower Treasure Valley. Baker City has already reported wind
gusts up to 37 MPH, and similar gusts are expected to reach
Ontario. Gusts will be slightly lower as the front moves up the
Upper Treasure Valley and Western Magic Valley, with gusts up to
20-25 MPH. The passage of the front overnight will result in
temperatures about 5 degrees cooler on Wednesday.

Winds have been updated to reflect current observations and the
latest high-resolution models for tonight into Wednesday
morning. The new data indicates slightly higher wind speeds than
previously forecasted. An updated forecast will be issued
shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt.
Gusts 20-30 kt KBKE-KONO-KMUO late tonight/early Wednesday as a
dry cold front moves through. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW
15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: NW 7-13 kt. Gusts
up to 20 kts between 05Z and 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...A weak north
Pacific upper trough will bring about 5 degrees cooling Wednesday
as it moves inland north of our CWA. Thursday looks as hot as
today as a short wave upper ridge comes inland ahead of a deep
upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska. Generally clear skies
until Thursday when clouds begin in southern zones. Models
develop enough instability near the ID/NV/UT tri-point for
a 10-20 percent chance of high-based thunderstorms Thursday
evening. Tonight and Wednesday night will be seasonably cool
with dry air and clear skies. No significant smoke indicated by
HRRR model. Thursday night looks several degrees warmer with
cloud cover and higher dew points. Winds will be light except in
southern Harney and Malheur Counties Thursday afternoon/night,
when west winds blow 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...A deep upper trough from
the Gulf of Alaska will come inland and through our CWA Friday
through Tuesday with much cooler air. Initial surface cold front
will pass through Friday. Pre-frontal gusty southwest winds will
shift to west/northwest 10-20 mph. High temps Friday will be in
the upper 70s through 80s. A second cold front will increase
northwest winds to 15-25 mph with afternoon gusts 25 to 35 mph
Saturday in open terrain. Highs Saturday will lower to the mid
60s to mid 70s, then mainly 60s Sunday and Monday, with breezy
northwest winds continuing. Models keep pcpn generally north
of our CWA with the best chance (20-40 percent) Sunday night
in the central Idaho mountains. Model consistency breaks down
Monday with ECM bringing the main trough axis through our CWA
while GFS leaves it off the northwest coast. Consensus for now
is with the ECM for continued cool, breezy weather Tuesday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC