Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
162
FNUS75 KBOU 211103
FWSBOU
Spot Forecast for Forsythe II - Unit 44...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
503 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...Cool conditions are forecast today with scattered
rain and snow showers. An isolated storm or two also can`t be
ruled out. Humidity values should drop to around 50% later this
afternoon. The precipitation forecast has trended a bit drier,
with guidance generally keeping the heavier precip out in the
plains and to the west of the divide, but any stronger
shower/storm this afternoon could produce a quick 0.1-0.2 inches
of liquid. Light and variable winds this morning will gradually
take on more of a westerly component with speeds also increasing.
Rain and snow showers will end overnight tonight with little or no
snow accumulation anticipated. Warmer and drier conditions are
expected by Wednesday with isolated showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
showers, snow showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms until 1200, then rain showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................7 percent increasing to 21 percent in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 2 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable winds around 5 mph until 0900, then
west 5 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms after 0900 until
1200. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0700. 5900 ft AGL after
1000.
Transport winds.....Light winds until 0700. West around 24 mph
after 1700.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0800, then fair until 0900, then
good until 1000, then very good until 1500,
then good until 1700, then very good.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83 75 65 62 65 70 74 80 81 82 80 78
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC
Weather type....RS RS RS RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 20 20 20 20 40 40 50 70 60 50
LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 4
Temp............37 37 39 42 45 47 48 50 47 47 46 43
RH..............95 88 76 67 58 53 51 50 56 58 58 62
20 FT wind dir..NW W NW NW NW W NW NW W W W W
20 FT wind spd..3 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9
20 FT wind gust.7 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.8 3.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 6.7 6.6 5.4 4.7 4.8 4.8
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.7 14 18 22 22 23 22 21 22 17 22 24
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 22 48 82 104 124 127 119 103 71 91 101
SmokeDispersion.P P F G VG VG VG VG VG G G VG
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2300, then
partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Chance of rain
showers, thunderstorms and snow showers until
2400, then a slight chance of snow showers and
thunderstorms until 0300.
CWR.................7 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 2 until 0300, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 31.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms until 0300.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL until 2000. Below 1000 FT AGL after
2100.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 24 mph until 2200, then 12 to 17
mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 2000, then poor.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........67 69 64 59 53 45 24 19 14 10 8 9
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RS RS SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).50 40 40 40 30 20 10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
Temp............42 40 37 35 35 34 34 33 34 33 32 32
RH..............62 67 72 75 72 72 72 72 66 66 69 66
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..10 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8
20 FT wind gust.16 13 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 15 15 13
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 3.4 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.24 23 18 17 14 14 15 13 15 15 16 15
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..98 67 18 13 10 11 11 8 10 10 10 9
SmokeDispersion.G G P P P P P P P P P P
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent) until 1200, then
partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers after 1200. Slight chance of
thunderstorms after 1500.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1500, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 8 mph until 1000, then variable
up to 5 mph until 1200, then southeast 5 to 8
mph until 1600, then southwest. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms after 1500.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0800. 8500 ft AGL after
1100.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then fair until 1100, then
good until 1200, then very good.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10 9 9 8 16 25 33 33 33 33 36 39
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
Temp............31 34 38 42 49 51 55 56 58 59 60 59
RH..............72 61 52 44 34 33 30 29 27 27 26 27
20 FT wind dir..W W W SW S SE SE SE SE SE S SW
20 FT wind spd..7 7 6 5 3 3 5 5 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.9 9 7 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.8 2.3 3.0 4.3 5.9 6.7 7.5 8.3 9.1 8.4 7.8
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.14 13 12 10 12 15 17 17 18 18 18 17
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 8 23 27 43 77 101 112 128 145 132 116
SmokeDispersion.P P P P F G VG VG VG VG VG VG
$$
Forecaster...Hiris
Requested by...Luke Finn
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414199.4/BOU
.DELDT 05/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL luke.finn@usda.gov