Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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446 FXUS64 KBRO 081920 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The short term forecast, albeit remaining well above normal temperature-wise, will be relatively quiet otherwise. A mid-level ridge anchored over East Texas will shift east a bit, supporting surface high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico. We may see isolated convection fire up over the front range of the Sierra Madre Oriental range to our west tonight, which is almost a staple for this time of year, but not expecting that activity to affect the CWA. What we will see is more sun than not, though both low clouds and high clouds will make an appearance. Winds will remain moderate out of the southeast. A weak sea breeze briefly spiked heat index values to near heat advisory criteria near the coast early this afternoon, and the same could occur on Sunday. The NBM kicks high temperatures on Sunday up a couple of degrees compared to today (to 103 degrees at Zapata) and, with dew points from the upper 60s west to the lower and mid 70s near the coast, heat index values will reach 105 to 110 degrees or slightly higher for a few hours Sunday afternoon. Heat index readings of 111 or 112 degrees may occur briefly for the Mid/Upper Valley and Brooks/Kenedy County ranches. Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 degrees. Rip current risk should remain low with the current forecast of low wave heights. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Key Messages: - Above normal temperatures and triple-digit heat indices continue - Low chance (around 20% or less) of isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night Mid/upper level ridging will continue to influence weather conditions across Deep South Texas through the long term period. Limited precipitation chances will return Monday afternoon and Monday night across the region as subsidence decreases with the slight weakening of the mid/upper level ridge. An upper level trough will track east of the Rockies, sending a weak cold front across the state. As the weak boundary slowly tracks south through the day and evening, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop, but widespread rainfall is not expected at this time. Low precipitation chances may continue into Tuesday, but most guidance indicates the best potential will be closer to the immediate coast and Gulf waters. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 101 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with the humidity, expect triple digit heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees. The mid/upper level ridge will build by Wednesday, bringing our limited rain chances to an end for the rest of the week. A gradual increase in high temperatures is expected each day, with most areas along and west of I-69 likely reaching 100 degrees or higher by Thursday afternoon. A Heat Advisory cannot be ruled out toward the end of the week as heat indices approach 111-113 degrees each afternoon as well. Regardless of any heat headlines, continue to practice heat safety if spending time outdoors to reduce the potential of heat-related illnesses. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions now at the TAF sites with scattered to broken low clouds in the form of cumulus cloud streets. The morning sounding showed 1.43 inches PWAT, enough to support a visible sea breeze line, plus southeast winds are light to moderate. The sounding also showed an inversion around 4 to 4.5 kft, and observed cloud decks are indeed at about that height. That said, not expecting much in the way of aviation concerns through tonight and Sunday morning. Guidance suggests a bit more in the way of low clouds tomorrow and perhaps slightly stronger southeast winds. Otherwise, VFR for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Tonight through Sunday night...Gulf high pressure will support ongoing moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas in the short term. Monday through Friday night...Generally favorable marine conditions are expected over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre as light to moderate southeast winds and low seas prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 96 82 96 / 0 10 0 20 HARLINGEN 77 98 78 98 / 0 10 0 20 MCALLEN 80 100 81 99 / 0 10 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 101 79 98 / 0 0 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 82 88 / 0 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 94 80 93 / 0 10 0 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....22-Garcia AVIATION...54-BHM