139
FXUS61 KBTV 310222
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1022 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s and 40s with frost
possible, mainly for the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. A steady
warming trend is expected over the weekend and into early next week.
There could be some showers next week, but chances are on the
lower side.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1018 PM EDT Thursday...

* A Frost Advisory remains in effect for Franklin County of New
  York and Essex County of Vermont from 1 AM to 8 AM Friday as
  temperatures fall as low as 31-34, resulting in frost
  formation.

Small changes made to the forecast as of 10 PM. Current obs
match very closely to this time last night with the exception of
southern VT which is several degrees cooler with a lack of cloud
cover in comparison. That being said, feel low temps will very
closely mimic last night despite mid/high clouds coming in
towards sunrise. Dropped min temps a couple of degrees here and
there, but doesn`t support modifying the frost advisory.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure currently over the Great Lakes will nudge
southeastward over the next 48 hours, providing increasingly
drier air to the forecast area. No appreciable precipitation is
expected through tomorrow night.

Tonight will start out fairly clear, but some mid to high level
clouds will increase towards the early morning hours as an area of
moisture in the 700mb layer slides southward across the
international border. Winds will be light at the surface/lower
elevations, but could remain somewhat consistent at higher
elevations and aloft as the edge of a 500mb jet streak passes
overhead into tomorrow. All that in consideration, tonight looks
like another chilly one with some valley fog. Lows are expected to
drop into the 30s and 40s, roughly 5-10 degrees below normal for
late May. This may result in areas of frost in cold hollows of the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Fog and freezing fog are also
anticipated in valleys and bowls of these areas as well.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and warmer with a northwesterly
surface flow. Highs will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s, warmest
across the Champlain Valley and southern Connecticut River Valley.
Winds should generally remain below 25 mph, keeping fire weather
concern low, though relative humidity may drop as low as 25-40%.
Despite high pressure, clear skies, and light winds recurring
tomorrow night, warm air will be flowing in aloft, which could keep
temperatures from getting too chilly like previous nights. Lows are
anticipated to fall only into the 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...Dry conditions continue through Saturday
night with the North Country remaining under high pressure.
Southerly flow and mostly clear skies will help temperatures warm
into the upper 70s/low 80s for most locations with overnight lows
ranging from the upper 40s in typically cooler spots to mid/upper
50s. Cloud cover will be increasing overnight as upper level ridge
becomes pinched between a large offshore upper low and weaker
upstream trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...Some isolated shower chances will be
possible mainly over northern New York and higher terrain of Vermont
Sunday as surface heat combines with weak trough south of the
region. Neutral thermal advection would favor a repeat of upper
70s/low 80s, but spots that get a light shower or extended cloud
cover could end up a few degrees cooler.

A warming trend and position of upper trough will support daily
chances of showers heading into next week. Conditions will feel
uncomfortable by mid week with highs likely reaching the mid/upper
80s and dew points in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. While no
strong forcing is anticipated, shower coverage will increase due to
increasing surface instability under 500mb cyclonic curvature. It
remains to be seen if instability will be sufficient for
thunderstorms, since the upper ridge will subtlety increase sub
subsidence aloft. Late next week, models diverge sharply in
anticipated position and movement of upper level features. EC/NBM
favor the pattern becoming progressive, but models at this time
scale are notorious for moving blocking patterns too quickly. Opted
to increase precipitation chances as system approaches from the
west, but didn`t carry likely chances due to uncertainty in pattern
evolution. Subsequently, kept temperatures warmer than guidance
keeping the heat for at least one more day.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with a low probability of fog at KSLK and KMPV, low
enough to omit from the forecast. Otherwise clearing skies this
evening into the early overnight will give way to a increasing
mid-level deck around 12-15kft after 08Z and through much of the
day. No precipitation is expected, and winds will be light
overnight, trending northwesterly at 8-12kts with gusts up to
18-20kts possible after 14Z.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Storm
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Lahiff