817
FXUS61 KBTV 281744
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
144 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of fronts moving through will promote rounds of
scattered afternoon showers over the next couple of days. Cooler
conditions are expected for Wednesday with noticeably lower
humidity. A gradual warming trend with mainly drier weather can
be expected going into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1222 PM EDT Tuesday...Daytime heating at the surface and
cooling temperatures aloft are helping generate a few showers
this afternoon. There is also a very thin line of heavier
showers associated with a secondary cold front that will
continue to move southeast across the region this afternoon.
None of the showers have produced any thunder yet but it is a
possibility in any of the showers that develop. However, there
is no threat for severe weather. Previous discussion follows...

A cold front will move through the area today associated with a
low pressure system to our north. Along with the passage of the
cold front, a dry slot has worked in which has allowed the
threat for heavy rainfall to come to an end. This morning began
with precipitable water values of 1.5+ inches as per RAP
soundings, but PW values drop to under 1.0 inch by daybreak
today. As an upper-level trough slides over the area today,
steepening lapse rates will promote development of some
scattered afternoon showers. A few embedded thunderstorms are
possible but with only shallow moisture and instability, not
expecting any severe weather. A secondary cold front will drop
through this evening into Wednesday, followed by a cooler and
drier air mass. During the day Wednesday, some widely scattered
showers will develop as the front sags southward, but only have
PoPs peaking in the 15-30 percent range. Highs Wednesday will be
in the 60s to around 70, with refreshing dewpoints in the 40s
to around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 AM EDT Tuesday...The cold front will continue to push south
and east away from the region Wednesday night, bringing any
lingering showers to an end overnight. The upper trough will swing
into the region from north to south Thursday and Thursday night.
However, a much drier airmass will follow the frontal passage, with
inverted-v type profiles and PWATs 0.50 inch or less. So while
expect increasing clouds during the day Thursday, especially over
the higher terrain, daytime hours will mostly by dry. That being
said, have kept a slight chance of showers across far southern and
eastern VT as better moisture will be poised just outside of our CWA
border. Thursday night will likewise be dry, with clearing skies
once we lose daytime heating. With dry air in place, light winds,
and partly to mostly clear skies, expect decent radiational cooling
both Wednesday and Thursday nights; lows will mainly be in the 40s,
though some of the usual cold spots in the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom could well drop into the 30s. Thursday`s highs will be
seasonable though perhaps a couple of degrees cooler than normal;
expect most places to top out in the mid 60s to around 70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 323 AM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will build over the region for
week`s end while the upper trough swings away out over the Atlantic.
The result will be fair and dry weather through at least Saturday.
Ridging breaks down by Sunday, with a few upper shortwaves progged
to slide along or just south of the international border. This could
allow for more showery conditions Sunday and Monday, though have
stayed close to the NBM PoPs for now given timing uncertainty; this
gives slight-low chances for showers for early next week.
Temperatures will exhibit a warming trend though this period;
Friday`s highs will be near normal (upper 60s to low 70s), but
expect much of the area to be approaching or exceeding 80F by
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Scattered showers will move through this
afternoon and evening. The heaviest showers will likely cause
visibilities to briefly drop into the MVFR range. However,
visibilities should be above 5 miles for a large majority of the
time at all the terminals. Ceilings should mostly be VFR this
afternoon though they could drop into the MVFR range at SLK for
period of time. Ceilings will steadily drop overnight and most
terminals should be MVFR by tomorrow morning. Ceilings at SLK could
fall into the IFR range for a period of time tonight as well. The
rain showers will gradually become more isolated as the night goes
on. Ceilings will begin to increase during the day tomorrow and most
of the terminals should go back to VFR. Some rain showers will
develop during the day tomorrow but they will likely be lighter and
cause less visibility restrictions than today. Winds will generally
be southwesterly this afternoon, gradually shifting to northwesterly
by the day tomorrow. LLWS is not a concern.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Myskowski