697
FXUS61 KBUF 171341
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
941 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will extend back
across the lower Great Lakes through midweek, maintaining dry and
warm weather across our region. The only difference from the past
several days will be a thickening blanket of highs clouds that will
push northward from low pressure drifting north from the Carolinas
to the Mid Atlantic. High pressure will build back providing more
sunshine and continued warm weather for the remainder of the week
and next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will continue to
extend back across the Lower Great Lakes through tonight. This will
maintain fair warm weather over our forecast area...although we will
experience a wealth of cirrus cloud cover that will continue to
circulate northwards from of an ex-tropical system now over the
southern Appalachians. H85 temps arnd 14c will combine with
increasingly dry antecedent conditions to support temperatures that
will average WELL above normal mid September values...which depending
on your exact location...are in the low to mid 70s. Instead...our max
temps this afternoon will remain more typical of July or early August
with readings generally in the lower 80s (slightly cooler higher
terrain).

Our high overcast skies will remain in place tonight...as the
aforementioned sfc high will block the advancement of the broad but
weak storm system spinning over the southern Appalachians. The cloud
cover will be unfortunate in that there will be a underwhelming partial
lunar eclipse of a Harvest Super moon. Just 8 percent of the top of the
full moon will become dark...with the eclipse lasting from 10:13 to
12:47 AM. The peak coverage will be around 10:44. Otherwise...the
weather promises to be uneventful with just the high clouds and mins in
the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Model consensus continues to trend even drier for the middle and
latter portion of the work week as high pressure looks to remain in
control across the lower Great Lakes, so much drier in fact that we
are no longer expecting much of anything in the way of shower
activity in the short term period for our area. Deeper moisture
associated with a weakening area of low pressure that will now be
located near the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday, will be shunted
southeast of our region as the low slowly drifts northeast along the
Atlantic coast. By Thursday, the low will be located south of the
southern New England coast. While this may bring some showers to
southeastern New York and southern New England, northward progression
of the system will all but cease as surface high pressure remains
anchored across northern New England southwestward through much
of New York State. This high will keep dry conditions in place
across western and northcentral NY through Thursday night, although
some mid and upper level cloud cover will be present at times.

Daytime temperatures will remain at least some 10 degrees or so
above average through the period with highs both days mainly in the
upper 70s to around 80, with mid 70s across the higher terrain.
Despite the warm daytime temperatures, longer September nights and
comfortable humidity levels will allow the fairly large diurnal
range in temps to continue with lows mainly ranging through the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather across western
and northcentral NY with mainly dry weather expected right through
the upcoming weekend. That said, there will be weak backdoor cold
front that will slowly approach our area on Friday from the
northeast as high pressure builds back across the region from east-
central Quebec southwest into New England. This boundary may
possibly then possibly stall or slowly crawl from northeast to
southwest across the area through the first half of the weekend,
before the high finally builds a bit further southwest shoving the
cold front to our west by Sunday. The main impact of this boundary
will be a slow cooling of our surface temps with highs falling from
the upper 70s to near 80 Friday and Saturday, to the upper 60s and
low 70s by Monday, which is still a bit above normal for this time
of year. Of no surprise the boundary is moisture-starved, so will
keep PoPs below SChc at this point. Looking toward the tail end of
the period, some of the medium range guidance is now showing the
ridge finally breaking down sometime early next week, with the next
chance for some precipitation possibly moving in as early as late
Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions and light winds will be in place through the TAF period.
The exception will be between 08 and 12z tonight when there will be
some valley fog to contend with across the Srn Tier and very locally
over some of the airfields of that area (ie. KJHW and KELZ.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the
eastern Great Lakes through the rest of the week, as weak low
pressure meanders along the east coast. The layout of the weak
pressure pattern over the eastern US and southeast Canada will
continue to promote mainly weak east/northeast flow on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario for the rest of the week, with sustained winds
under 10 knots most of the time.

+&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA