Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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041 FXUS61 KBUF 260011 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 811 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A few spotty leftover showers will wind down this evening as high pressure builds into the region. The high will then drift across our area on Sunday and provide us with a pleasant middle of the long holiday weekend. A complex storm system tracking across the Upper Great Lakes will then bring rather unsettled weather into our region for Memorial Day...when some strong thunderstorms and locally heavy downpours will be possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of this writing the shower activity from this afternoon has completely exited our region. With broad/flat troughing still in place aloft...still can`t entirely rule out a few additional spotty showers through the early overnight hours...however the potential for even these will wane from west to east over time as surface-based ridging builds into our region. The burgeoning surface ridge will also supply us with clearing skies and light winds. With plenty of leftover low-level moisture remaining in place from today`s convection...this should lead to the development of areas of low stratus and/or fog overnight...with the lower clouds and fog most likely across far western New York and the Finger Lakes (where showers/storms were most prevalent and low level moisture will consequently be richer). On Sunday the surface ridge axis will slide eastward across our area during the morning...before passing off to our east during the afternoon. Renewed diurnal heating and mixing will lead to the dissipation of any low stratus and fog during the first half of the morning...leaving behind increasing sunshine and pleasant weather for the balance of the day. This will make for a superb afternoon (and the best of the long holiday weekend) for outdoor activities... with highs reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s in most areas. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The pattern will become amplified as an upper level trough digs into the Mid- Western States and Upper Great Lakes region Sunday night into Memorial Day. A warm front that extends from surface low pressure over Illinois will move from south to north across the forecast area. A plume of GOMEX moisture will move into the region with PWATS over the 90th percentile for this time of year. The first wave of showers will be associated with the nose of a 40kt low level jet. The showers will move through the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday morning. There will likely be a break across western NY Monday morning, however destabilization will occur with daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. There are hints of a prefrontal trough across western NY Monday afternoon, as well as an approaching cold front as the surface low moves into northern lower Michigan. Relatively strong mid- level flow will be present as a shortwave trough becomes negatively tilted to our northwest. Conditions are favorable for organized convection and some strong to severe thunderstorms. This activity will then move northeast across the Finger Lakes region and into north central NY into Monday evening. There is a Day 3 Marginal Risk out for the area. The moist airmass will also make for torrential downpours and isolated flooding can`t be ruled out. Rainfall amounts may exceed an inch especially east-southeast of Lake Ontario. There will likely be drier air in the mid-levels across western NY which may limit rainfall amounts. The cold front will move across the region Monday night. Overall, showers and storms will end from west to east across the region, however moisture lingers behind the departing system. Showers will remain possible into Tuesday morning. The upper level trough will become nestled over the Great Lakes region Tuesday. A series of shortwave troughs will round the base of the trough across the Upper Midwest region and Ohio Valley. Cool air aloft during daytime heating and lift from the approaching trough will support low to medium chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the region Tuesday afternoon into evening. The next shortwave trough and cold front will approach Tuesday night and support another period of showers overnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level trough will be across the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday through Thursday. There will be multiple shortwave troughs that rotate cyclonically around the parent low and bring periods of unsettled weather. Thunderstorms are possible especially in the afternoon into early evening. The trough will move east through the end of the week and cooler air will filter into the region into Friday. Surface high pressure will move into the region for the weekend resulting in moderate confidence of fair and dry weather Friday to Saturday. Temperatures will start out below normal Wednesday and Thursday and increase to near to above normal Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will build into the region tonight...bringing an end to any spotty leftover showers. With low level moisture remaining in place...the clearing skies and light winds attendant to the high will also lead to the development of areas of fog and lower stratus overnight...resulting in fairly widespread MVFR to IFR conditions through daybreak Sunday. The worst conditions will be most likely from far western New York eastward into portions of the Finger Lakes...where low level moisture will be the richest. On Sunday...renewed diurnal heating and mixing will lead to the dissipation of any fog and low stratus during the first half of the morning...followed by increasing amounts of sunshine through the rest of the day. This will result in a return to widespread VFR conditions areawide. Outlook... Sunday Night...Increasing clouds with scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms developing. Restrictions possible. Monday...Restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with showers. Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... A few leftover spotty showers will continue to wind down from west to east through the first half of tonight as high pressure builds into our region...while winds will largely to be light to modest at 10 knots or less. With a moist airmass in place...clearing skies could allow for some areas of fog to develop overnight... particularly across Lake Erie...the Niagara River...and western Lake Ontario. On Sunday the axis of the high will slide across our area in the morning...then off to our northeast during the afternoon. This will result in light to modest winds turning east-northeasterly under 10 knots...with fair weather prevailing outside of any areas of dissipating early morning fog. More notable winds will occur on Monday into Tuesday with increasing southerly winds early Monday taking on a more west-southwesterly component Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Winds could nudge into the 15 to 25 knots range with possible small craft headlines needed during this time period. Scattered gusty thunderstorms will also be possible Monday. Boaters should continue to monitor the forecast, especially given the holiday weekend which will likely increase boating activity. This will especially be the case on Monday as conditions on the lower Great Lakes will likely deteriorate. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR NEAR TERM...AR/JJR SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...AR/JJR MARINE...AR/JJR