989
FXUS61 KBUF 021846
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
246 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring some rain showers to WNY today into
this evening. Low cloudiness and some areas of fog will be
possible tonight across portions of Western New York. Mainly dry
weather returns Monday but a shower or isolated shower will be
possible in the afternoon. The next chance for showers and
storms will arrive by the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As a weakening low pressure system will bring some showers to our
forecast area through this evening. The best shot at seeing
shower activity will be found from the Genesee Valley west
across WNY. East of Lake Ontario...most locales likely won`t see
much other than just an increase in cloud coverage.

Otherwise...QPF amount of no more than a few hundredths of an
inch at best expected over any given location.

Highs today will be a bit cooler in the 60s to low 70 west of
Genesee Valley due to cloud cover. Elsewhere...highs will be in the
mid to upper 70s near 80F where there will likely be more sunshine.

Tonight...light winds and residual moisture following what little
rainfall we do receive will allow for low stratus and some patchy
fog overnight. Otherwise...lows will range through the mid 50s to
around 60.

Monday...mainly dry weather as weak mid-level ridging builds into
the region. That said...an isolated shower or thunderstorm will
still be possible during peak heating. Highs will be found solidly
in the 70s to low 80s in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak mid-level ridge will remain over the region Tuesday. Limited
diurnal instability will develop again which may produce an
isolated shower or thunderstorm, but the ridging should suppress
most if not all convection. Highs Tuesday will mainly be found
in the 80s.

Ridging surface and aloft will shift east across New England Tuesday
night, while a deepening upper level trough will approach the region
from the west. This will bring a chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm late Tuesday night. Otherwise it will be rather
humid and muggy with lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A closed upper level low will move across the Great Lakes region
during the period. This will establish a wet pattern with a cooling
trend for the long term period.

Temperatures will start off well above normal on Wednesday, with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However 00Z model guidance
pushes a warm frontal segment across the area late Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Convection along this front will have the potential
to produce locally heavy downpours since the warm and moist air mass
will feature PWAT values around 1.75 inches. This feature has the
best chance to produce widespread precipitation, supporting likely
PoPs with its passage.

After this, forecast confidence diminishes since it will depend on
the position of the upper low and subtle embedded shortwaves which
are difficult to resolve at this timeframe. In general there will be
a persistent risk of showers/isolated thunderstorms which will be
maximized during the afternoon hours corresponding to peak daytime
heating. However, there also will be plenty of rain-free time
between shortwaves and most of the nighttime. As the upper low
settles near or across the region, temperatures will become cooler,
but even so daytime highs Friday and Saturday will only be slightly
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weakening low pressure system will bring some showers to
western terminals this afternoon. Otherwise...VFR expected to
continue for most terminals...the lone exception will be at KJHW
where periodic IFR Cigs will be possible.

Showers will weaken and diminish this evening. Lingering low-level
moisture and light wind flow will allow for areas of fog and
lowering Cigs areawide tonight. LIFR is likely for the hilltops of
the Southern Tier (KJHW), with IFR or low end MVFR expected for
KBUF/KIAG/KROC overnight.

Less moisture east of Lake Ontario may leave KART and surrounding
area VFR through much of the night.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.
Thursday and Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will bring some showers today but winds will remain
light with minimal wave action.

A weak pressure gradient will continue to maintain light winds and
minimal waves into mid-week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel/JJR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR