894
FXUS62 KCAE 070146
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
946 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to move across the region late tonight
into early Friday morning. Drier air will move in behind the
front for Friday into the weekend. Another cold front will move
through the area and stall along the coast early next week. This
will result in scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms through mid week. Temperatures will be near or
above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Convection struggled to take hold this afternoon and evening
as the best dynamics have remained north and east of the
forecast area. The cold front will be crossing the area early
tonight with the location of the front becoming diffuse across
the region. The best dynamics will again remain north of the
area and with IR and WV satellite imagery showing mostly clear
skies have removed mention of convection for all but the for
northern Midlands and Pee Dee. Although winds will turn westerly
with fropa do not expect much if any cold air advection through
daybreak and with winds remaining 5 to 10 mph overnight limiting
radiational cooling expect lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday and Friday night...Upper level trough with northwest
flow aloft across the area. Ridge centered over the desert
southwest. The cold front should be moving into the SC coastal
plain by daybreak. Drier air will be spreading into the region
with west-northwest low-level flow. Dry downslope flow and
strong diabatic heating will overcome any weak cold advection.
So, temperatures will rise to around 90 degrees, little warmer
in the southeast Midlands. Low temps in the low to mid 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...Downslope flow continues with
stronger subsidence expected. Temperatures will likely rise
into the mid 90s or a little higher in the afternoon. Warmer
night expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models suggest another secondary front will move through
the area Sunday night as the upper trough to the north amplifies
along the eastern seaboard. Guidance is indicating showers
should be mainly isolated Sunday night. The front will become
stationary near the coast early next week. Typical summer time
pattern through mid week with weak to moderate instability each
afternoon. Ensembles suggest widely scattered to scattered
mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms each day. NBM
temperature distribution shows some uncertainly, but
temperatures should be near or above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period outside of a remnant
shower or storm this evening.

THunderstorms really stayed isolated this afternoon, having only
impacted the Augusta sites earlier. Convection across the
upstate has really struggled, and that is expected to continue.
So unless something unexpected happens, VFR is likely for much
of the period. Winds have been fairly breezy today out of the
southwest but these are beginning to relax this evening. Expect
a strong low-level jet to keep winds between 3 and 8 knots
overnight, though. Fog/stratus isn`t expected tonight as drier
air will begin working in behind a front and the surface winds
should keep us fairly mixed. Unseasonably dry air pushes in by
tomorrow, with only a few clouds and breezy northwesterly winds
expected during the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier weather through the weekend.
Moisture increases early next week which may lead to early
morning fog or stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$