763
FXUS62 KCAE 030714
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
314 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases across the Southeast through mid week. This
will support scattered convection mainly in the afternoons and
evenings. A cold front will approach the region late in the week
leading to increasing rain chances and a chance for severe
weather. Temperatures will be near or above normal through the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Morning analysis shows a weak upper trough moving across the
Carolinas early this morning with a shortwave near CLT.
Mesoanalysis shows some drier air behind the shortwave with
PWATs around 1 inch in the NC mtns while a axis of higher PWATs
around 1.5-1.6 inches was located over the central Carolinas.

Expect some weak upper ridging into the area with weak height
rises today in the wake of the shortwave trough shifting to the
coast. PWATs stay relatively uniform with values around 1.5
inches through the day. Hi-res guidance suggests isolated to
scattered convection this afternoon as daytime heating results
in weak to moderate instability with SBCAPE values around 1000
J/kg, although DCAPE values remain relatively modest around 500
J/kg. Overall wind shear remains weak, less than 30 knots so any
storms that develop should remain disorganized. Overall severe
weather threat appears low at this time and SPC has the area
outlooked in a general thunder risk. Will continue to carry
chance pops this afternoon with initial convection developing
over the Midlands and focused on possible lingering outflow
boundaries, then focused along a sea breeze later in the
afternoon.

Temperatures today should be similar to yesterday and somewhat
limited by cloud cover as a widespread cumulus deck is expected
to develop. Max temperatures expected in the mid to upper 80s.
Tonight, any lingering convection should dissipate by midnight
with the loss of heating and stabilization of the atmosphere.
Overnight lows expected to be mild with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak upper level ridge will be moving off the coast early in the
day. So the mid level cap appears weaker by afternoon compared
to earlier model runs. The Surface Bermuda high will be
offshore with south- southwesterly low- level flow across the
area. Moisture flux increases in the Moisture will be increasing
from the west through the day as a mid level short wave over
Tennessee/Georgia moves toward the area. The stronger dynamics
appear to lift mainly north of the area, but expect some lift as
the short wave approaches in the afternoon. Ensembles suggest
precipitable water will be increasing to near around 1.6 inches.
Deterministic GFS precipitable water is a little higher along
with enhanced moisture convergence into the Piedmont. Guidance
max temps are a little higher with the NBM near 90 degrees due
to warm advection. So the low to mid level lapse rates are a
little steeper than previous days. Overall CAPE remains limited
and expect weak to possibly moderate instability. Perhaps the
sea breeze may provide some convective focus in the east as
well. Expect scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Persistence with overnight lows, in the upper
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ensembles continue to indicate the upper level heights will
flatten with a more pronounced short wave trough moving through
the area late Wednesday. The models are also consistent with a
deep closed low moving from the northern Plains southeast
through the Great Lakes region into the eastern CONUS Friday.
This will drive a cold front through the area early Friday.
Moisture appears to maximize Wednesday across the area with the
air mass moderate ahead of the front. Guidance pops support
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday. Deep layer shear increases to near 30 kts across the
northern portion of the CWA and the northwest flow aloft appears
diffluent. Some potential for stronger or severe storms
Thursday. Risk at this time marginal. Dry northwest flow aloft
behind the frontal passage with surface ridge building in. With
dry/downslope flow temperatures may remain quite warm into the
weekend and expect near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Evening showers have all but dissipated with some lingering
light showers in the Pee Dee region. Skies have generally
cleared in areas without showers. Winds are generally light from
the south and should remain so through sunrise before picking up
from the southwest around 5 to 8 knots through the afternoon.
Abundant low level moisture in place should yield a
stratocumulus deck after sunrise around 4k-5kft. Weak upper
ridging should help minimize afternoon convection but scattered
showers and storms are expected, but not included in this
forecast due to low confidence in impacts to terminals at this
time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through Friday with intermittent
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$