017
FXUS62 KCAE 270247
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1047 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area late Monday. Scattered
strong thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front with
temperatures remaining above normal. More seasonable
temperatures and drier conditions are expected behind the front
through mid to late week as a high pressure area builds in from
the upper Mississippi Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The radar is much quieter at this hour with a singular thundershower
moving into Newberry County. The majority of the overnight
period is expected to be tranquil until the next MCS approaches
the forecast area from the northwest towards daybreak with a
slight chance of a few passing showers over the far northwestern
CWA. The evolution of this feature will dictate how the
potential severe weather plays out on Monday and will need to be
monitored as it approaches. Skies have cleared out over the
CSRA and this clearing trend will continue from southwest to
northeast during the next several hours. However, cloudiness
associated with the aforementioned MCS will increase towards
daybreak. It`ll be a muggy night with temperatures falling into
the lower 70s by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The active weather pattern will continue Monday into Monday
night as low pressure tracks through the central Great Lakes and
pushes a cold front through the SE US. Although there is high
confidence the front will be moving through the region
confidence is currently low as to storm development and
coverage with much surrounding the convection and movement of
the MCS tonight. The MCS is expected to be moving toward Upstate
SC tonight however models continue to weaken the remains as it
crosses the mountains. Model soundings indicate some CIN in the
area Monday morning along with low level lapse rates under 5.5
C/Km and 850 mb winds turning more westerly. Even though
thunderstorms may not form in the morning and early afternoon
hours the front will still be west of the area and act as a
focusing mechanism for convection during the late afternoon and
evening hours as it crosses the region. CAPE during the
afternoon and early evening ahead of the front will be around
2000 J/Kg or higher with pwat values aoa 1.75 inches and DCAPE
around 1000 J/Kg. Divergence aloft during the late afternoon and
evening will be weak with winds at 35 kft expected to be a
maximum of 60 knots. With the potential for damaging winds and
hail SPC has expanded the slight risk to include the entire
forecast area tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s with lows Monday night in the mid 60s
to around 70.

Tuesday and Tuesday night are expected to be convection free as
the front will be offshore and high pressure along with drier
air will be building into the region. The upper level trough
will remain over the eastern US however with pwat values
dropping to under 1 inch by midday and 850-500 mb lapse rates
under 6.0 C/Km do not expect much in the way cloudiness and any
cumulus which develop will be vertically limited. Highs Tuesday
afternoon will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper level pattern will remain highly amplified and
progressive through the long term with changing conditions
across the region. Upper level trough will remain over the
eastern US through Friday while the surface will be controlled
by high pressure and drier air. This will keep partly clear
skies over the area with increasing clouds Thursday as a mid
level disturbance moves through the region. This feature will be
quickly ushered offshore as the upper level trough axis swings
through the region Friday afternoon. High pressure will be
moving across the region Saturday with increasing moisture
Saturday afternoon as return flow from the Gulf begins. By
Sunday the high will be east of the region with a trough of low
pressure moving into the area and possibly becoming a focusing
mechanism for convection. Temperatures through the long term
will be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected outside of any shower-storm activity
this evening and overnight.

Ridge offshore with south-southwest flow across the area. The
cumulus field has diminished across the area during the past
hour due to subsidence/loss of diurnal heating, drier air in the
central midlands. There may be some mid level capping as
suggested by RAP/HRRR soundings. However, the air mass remains
moderately unstable, deep layer shear is increasing across the
area ahead of an upper trough and upper heights will fall a bit
this evening. Thunderstorms have develop in the Upstate SC and
are tracking to the northeast. Based on radar trends think most
of the convection will stay north of the terminals this evening.
So expect mid level ceilings with southwest winds 5 to 10
knots. The boundary layer remains well mixed overnight so fog is
not expected. The HRRR is suggesting some stratus may develop
near the AGS/DNL terminals around daybreak but other guidance
remains VFR. Expect scattered cumulus to develop by mid to late
morning with mid level ceilings. Thunderstorm threat increases
in the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the Carolina
Mountains. The air mass is expected to be moderately to strongly
unstable and strongly sheared. Scattered strong thunderstorms
are possible mainly in the afternoon. The pressure gradient will
strengthen and expect southwest winds to gust to around 20
knots in the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Monday evening
in scattered thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the
area. Otherwise, significant restrictions not expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$