291
FXUS62 KCHS 062313
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
713 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and move
through Friday morning. High pressure returns for the weekend,
then another cold front will move through Monday. High pressure
will build back in behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: A few showers/thunderstorms continue to develop across far
western most zones early this evening, where strong heating during
the day (highs in the low-mid 90s) along with broad h5 shortwave
energy advancing eastward across the region has led to SBCAPE in the
1500-2500 J/kg range locally. Strong low-lvl lapse rates around 8
C/km and DCAPE values upwards to 1000-1200 J/kg also suggests a
brief window of opportunity for a thunderstorm or two capable of
producing strong and/or perhaps a marginally severe wind gust up
to sunset, but activity should gradually wane thereafter within
a weakly sheared environment and the loss of diurnal heating.
There could be a lull in activity for a few hours mid-late evening
before the focus of additional shower/thunderstorm activity occurs
as a cold front approaches the region overnight.

Some hi-res guidance suggests shower/thunderstorm redevelopment to
occur along/east of the I-95 corridor after midnight, with the bulk
of precip activity drifting eastward and eventually off the coast by
daybreak Friday as the cold front nears. Shear remains weak during
the time frame and the severe weather threat is anticipated to be
low, but modest instability (SBCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg) could
support loosely organized showers/thunderstorms capable of producing
strong wind gusts. With increasing cloud cover and a southerly flow
in place ahead of the front, low temps will remain quiet mild with
mid/upper 70s along near the coast and low 70s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An elongated axis of upper level low pressure will build across the
Northern Plains/Great Lakes and New England region during the first
part of the near term with low amplitude troughing pressing down
through the Mid Atlantic and southeast states. Surface boundary is
still looking to gradually slip down through the region during the
course of day Friday and will knock temperatures down a few degrees
from where we have been the last few. But the more noticeable impact
will be lower dewpoint/drier air gradually spreading into the
southeast region through the course of the day. Precip chances look
minimal, although there could be a few pop-up showers along the
boundary Friday afternoon particularly across parts of southeast
Georgia where higher dewpoint air/instability is expected to reside -
although that will depend on just where the boundary ends up at that
time.

With drier air/minimal instability across the region, Saturday and
Sunday look quiet at this juncture. But temperatures will continue
to run warm/above normal through the weekend with highs warming into
the lower to middle 90s each day...a good 5 to 10 degrees above
normal for early June. Overnight lows through the period will range
through the 60s overall, to the lower/middle 70s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low amplitude ridging is looking spread out along the Gulf Coast
region through the first part of next week with warmer/higher
dewpoint air again edging back through the southeast states. Along
with several weak disturbances rippling through the region, daytime
shower/thunderstorm chances are looking to return during the first
half of the week. A stronger/better organized upper level trough may
advance through the Gulf Coast and southeast region during the
middle and latter half of next week bringing higher precip chances,
although longer term guidance solutions do show a fair amount of
spread during that time frame. Temperatures will continue to run
above normal through the period overall, but we could see a bit of a
cooldown mid to late week...depending on how the pattern
evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will mostly prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 18z Friday. Most of the day is expected to be dry and
the best chance for thunderstorms will come this evening, mainly
at KCHS and KJZI. We have added in VCTS from 01-04z at these
sites, but left any mention out of KSAV.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Overall VFR conditions will prevail
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds will surge slightly as a cold front approaches from
the west overnight. A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient should
yield south-southeast winds upwards to 15-20 kt, strongest across
South Carolina waters and the CHS Harbor. Seas should also build up
to 3-4 ft.

Friday through Monday: Southerly flow early Friday will veer
westerly Friday night and northerly on Saturday behind a cold front.
However, the pattern quickly reverts back to the typical southerly/
southwesterly flow later in the weekend into early next week. Winds
will continue to run 15 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...Adam
AVIATION...Adam/CPM
MARINE...Adam/DPB