412
FXUS62 KCHS 301443
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1043 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: A dry cold front has moved south our our area. Weak,
post-frontal cold air advection will be brief and will become
neutral later in the day, but a mean northerly wind component
will keep conditions much cooler compared to the past few days
where a strong downslope component prevailed. Full sun thickness
schemes support highs in the mid-upper 80s. A weak sea breeze
will begin to develop along the coast by early afternoon and
trek slowly inland through sunset. The only real impact from its
passage will an uptick in dewpoints and a veering of the wind
from north/northeast to east/southeast. The atmosphere looks too
dry to support the development of fair weather cumulus, but
occasional strands of high clouds will pass through at times.

Tonight: High pressure will build south into the Southeast U.S.
tonight. The boundary layer looks to decouple shortly after
sunset with the sea breeze circulation quickly breaking down
across the coastal counties. Clear skies, low dewpoints and
calm/light winds will support strong radiational cooling. Low
temperatures favoring the colder side of the 30/00z guidance
were used to construct overnight temperatures taking into
account usual mesoscale influences and the warmer SSTs at the
coast and in the Santee-Cooper Lakes. Similar to this morning,
very tight thermal gradients will be observed near bodies of
water. Lows will range from the upper 50s/near 60 inland to the
lower 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level trough shifts off the East Coast on Friday. Ridging
will then briefly traverse overhead early in the weekend,
before a weak disturbance moves through on Sunday. At the
surface, high pressure initially centered north of the area will
eventually drift east and offshore, maintaining control of the
local weather. Lack of moisture or any notable forcing will keep
quiet and dry conditions through at least Saturday. Could see a
few diurnal showers/thunderstorms on Sunday, but even then
coverage looks sparse. Rain chances are no higher than 20% and
mainly focused over far inland areas.

It will feel quite pleasant with highs largely in the mid 80s
and low humidity. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, except more mild at the immediate coast.
Low temps will gain a couple degrees for Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Atlantic high pressure is expected to extend across the region
during the early to middle of next week. Aloft, ridging looks
to rebuild over the area, with potential for a weak wave to
approach towards midweek. Still no day that looks particularly
active. Forecast continues to feature just slight chance/20%
PoPs during the day for diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
30/12z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 31/12z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: A brief northerly surge this morning will start to ease
into this afternoon, with winds veering near the coast and
across Charleston Harbor as a sea breeze develops. Seas will
average 2-3 ft.

Tonight: After a period of light winds in the evening, a more
northerly component will become reestablished as high pressure
to the north builds south. Speeds will hold less than 10 kt with
seas 1-2 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: High pressure initially centered north
of the region will shift east and offshore over the weekend.
Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend over the area
through the middle of next week. Conditions stay below Small
Craft Advisory levels through the period, with winds speeds 15
knots or less and seas averaging 2-3 feet.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...