Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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322 FXUS64 KCRP 180520 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 357 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate Risk of of heat-related impacts A mid to upper level ridge is expected to expand into the region from northern Mexico tonight into tomorrow. This will increase subsidence across the region and lower our PWAT to around 1.5" which is just a touch below our climatological daily mean for this time of the year. The only chance for rain will be tomorrow afternoon with the sea breeze with a very low (less than 15%) chance for showers. Near normal temperatures are expected tomorrow afternoon ranging from the lower to the upper 90s. Conversely, the overnight lows will run about 5 degrees above normal with lows ranging from the mid to upper 70s for most of the region with sites along the immediate coast remaining above 80s. While models continue to struggle with fog, opted to go with persistence and included some areas of patchy fog from the Coastal Plains to the Victoria Crossroads. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 357 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Key Messages: - Morning and afternoon showers and storms possible (~20%) along the Coastal Bend most of the week. - Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts through Friday. Forecast remains on track through the long term. Ridging aloft will generally remain in control through the work week, before beginning to flatten out into early next week as a trough swings across the Central CONUS. Daily bouts of slight rain and storm chances will continue (PoPs ~20%), mainly induced by the sea breeze in conjunction with the arrival of pockets of slightly deeper moisture (PWATs 1.6-1.8"). Temperatures will stay at above normal levels through the entire period, with highs in the 90s, and overnight lows in the 70s. The HeatRisk is forecast to be at Moderate to Major levels Thursday and Friday, and then at Minor to Moderate over the weekend into early next week. Heat index values may near or exceed Advisory criteria Thursday and Friday. Minor coastal flooding may become a concern late this week as astronomical tides increase in response to the full moon, though confidence in this is very low at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 With little change in the forecast pattern, expect we will still experience fog in the morning as we have in the past few mornings. Model guidance has not handled this well over the last few days so, based on persistence, have continued TEMPO groups for IFR/LIFR fog for VCT and ALI from 11Z-15Z. For the same reasoning, have included MVFR ceilings for CRP, LRD, and VCT in the morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 357 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Light and variable winds can be expected tonight and tomorrow night with winds increasing to light to moderate tomorrow afternoon. Weak to at times moderate onshore flow will continue through the weekend. There is a low to medium (15-35%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 92 78 92 / 0 10 0 10 Victoria 74 95 75 96 / 0 10 0 20 Laredo 77 95 78 96 / 10 0 0 10 Alice 75 95 76 95 / 0 10 0 10 Rockport 80 92 79 92 / 0 10 10 10 Cotulla 77 98 79 99 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 76 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 81 88 81 88 / 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCP LONG TERM....CLM AVIATION...LS/77