345
FXUS64 KCRP 140732
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
232 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Things will be drier today as ridging aloft builds in and PWATs fall
to ~1.5". There will still be some low (10-20%) chances of rain over
the waters today and tonight, with chances increasing to 15-30% for
Saturday, mainly over the offshore waters where moisture will
linger.

While we all know we need some rain, the bright side of lower
moisture is that heat index values will be a bit lower over the
area. High temperatures will be much the same as they have been,
with highs in the lower 90s along the coast to around 100 over the
Brush Country. Even so, there could be a few locations that briefly
reach Heat Advisory criteria, especially along the southern Coastal
Bend. At this time, a Heat Advisory will not be issued as confidence
is too low. Conditions will be similar for Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Key Messages:
- Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical
development.
- Increasing moisture leading to higher rain chances next week.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the Bay of
Campeche for potential development of a broad surface low late this
weekend into early next week. Currently, the chance of formation
stands at 40% over the next seven days. Deterministic models show
good agreement on the formation of this closed surface low with a
consensus on a westward trajectory into Mexico. However, keep in
mind that this forecast can change as we are still quite a few days
out. Therefore, further development still remains a bit uncertain.
Regardless of the storm`s progression, there is medium to high
confidence that an influx of tropical moisture will lead to
increased local rain chances through next week.

The expected moisture increase is partly due to mid-level ridging
building over the Southeastern CONUS, creating a pathway for
substantial tropical moisture (PWAT values around 2.0-2.5 inches) to
move along the Middle Texas Coast. Consequently, the region can
expect stronger east to southeast flow due to an enhanced pressure
gradient, resulting in larger swells that may cause elevated tides,
coastal flooding, and an increased risk of rip currents.

Regarding temperatures, highs will range from the low 90s to 100s
from Sunday through Tuesday, with heat indices between 105-110
expected. By mid-week, temperatures will gradually decline due to
increased cloud cover and rain changes, leading to more temperate
conditions compared to what we have experienced as of late.
Beginning Wednesday, highs are expected to range from the mid to
upper 80s across much of South Texas, with a few areas reaching
the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions persist through this period for most of the area.
Could see a brief MVFR CIG at ALI toward morning. Light to
moderate winds at LRD will subside over the next couple of hours.
Winds will increase to moderate levels again behind the sea breeze
for all sites tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow through the weekend will increase
to more moderate to strong levels late Sunday into early Monday.
The potential development of a closed surface low is expected over
the western Gulf, allowing wave heights to increase through next
week. This could lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions. The
National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a medium
chance, 40%, of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days.
Rain chances are set to increase with this area of disturbed
weather, 50-80%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  80  94  79 /  10   0  20  10
Victoria          95  74  95  73 /  10  10  10   0
Laredo           102  78 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             97  75  97  74 /  10   0  20  10
Rockport          94  82  94  82 /  10   0  20  10
Cotulla          102  78 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        97  77  97  77 /  10   0  20  10
Navy Corpus       92  83  92  83 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...PH