Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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399 FXUS64 KCRP 111744 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1244 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate heat-related impacts are expected today and Wednesday across South Texas. - Low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight, increasing to a medium (20-30%) chance on Wednesday. A northwest flow aloft will continue to bring embedded short waves southeastward across TX today. Moisture across S TX is limited to the lower levels with PWATs generally 1.5-1.7 inches most of the day. Models prog convection to develop across north and northwest TX and show the convection moving south and approaching the northern tier of the CWA by this afternoon/evening. Several models bring the convection into the northern Brush Country while others show the Victoria Crossroads. Some models keep S TX rain free. With the variation in model solutions, went with a blend and show a low (10- 20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from Cotulla to Victoria for today into this evening. PWATs are progged to increase to around 2 inches tonight, however, increasing CIN through 06Z tonight will inhibit convective development. Could begin to see some convection redevelop toward early Wednesday morning, mainly across the eastern CWA. Rain chances increase to a low to medium (20-40%) chance Wednesday with another embedded short wave tracking south across the region. Model solutions continue to vary with placement and timing of the storms, therefore, kept a more broad brushed chance across the eastern CWA where moisture and instability are forecast to be the greatest. Highs will be near to above normal today and Wednesday with Wednesday`s highs a couple of degrees cooler with increased convection in the area. Heat Index values will generally range from around 100 across the Victoria Crossroads to around 107 across the remainder of S TX each afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts through Saturday, increasing to moderate to major early next week - Increasing moisture and rain chances next week Back-end remnants of a passing mid-level shortwave and PWAT values around 2.0" will keep a low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. A ridge will move from northern Mexico into the southern Great Plains Thursday night into Friday, causing subsidence and rain-free conditions across South Texas. This weekend going into early next week most of Texas will be located in a mid-level col, saddling between highs over western Mexico and the SE CONUS and lows over the southern Great Plains and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A col can cause an unsettling weather pattern as moisture accumulates. We`ll see rain chances increase over the waters but then move inland early next week as an inverted surface to mid-level trough combines with above normal moisture. The ECMWF is the wettest solution with a potent inverted mid-level trough persisting for multiple days over South Texas with PWATs over 2.5" but the GFS takes the trough northward and develops a weak closed low. We`ll need to keep a close eye on the tropics as 00Z deterministic runs of the ECMWF/GFS/CMC/ICON develop a surface area of low pressure early next week over the Bay of Campeche. Considering the potential tropical moisture increase and inverted troughing, have low rain chances returning Sunday, increasing to low to medium chances (20-40%) next Monday. The risk of heat-related impacts will likely increase as our dewpoints climb to near 80. However, if rain and sky cover increases in future forecasts, we can expect the heat risk to decrease. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR ceilings will prevail across all TAFs sites through this evening. MVFR ceilings will move in briefly at a couple of TAF sites around daybreak tomorrow (ALI and COT). Elsewhere, VFR ceilings will continue to persist through the remainder of the TAF period. There is a low chance for VCSH this evening into tonight for a couple of sites (COT and VCT). && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Weak to moderate onshore winds are anticipated each afternoon, diminishing to weaker levels overnight. There will be a low to medium chance of showers and storms each afternoon, primarily over the open waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 79 93 77 / 10 10 30 10 Victoria 95 74 91 74 / 20 20 40 20 Laredo 102 79 100 79 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 99 76 96 74 / 10 10 30 20 Rockport 93 80 92 79 / 10 10 40 10 Cotulla 101 79 98 78 / 10 10 10 10 Kingsville 97 78 96 76 / 10 10 30 20 Navy Corpus 92 82 91 81 / 10 10 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....EMF AVIATION...NP/92