Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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085 FXUS64 KCRP 152001 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 301 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Key Message: - Low chance of flash flooding over the Brush Country through tonight An elongated low located over eastern Mexico around the 700mb level from Pacific Post-Tropical Cyclone Ilena will continue to usher in mid-level moisture and funnel southeasterly Gulf moisture through tonight over portions of South Texas. A remnant old frontal boundary extending from the western Gulf across South Texas is acting as a lifting mechanism for showers and storms to develop in addition to 300mb divergence. The sea breeze is having a more noticeable impact in convection over Deep South Texas with a recent lightning jump. Satellite is depicting PWAT values around 2.6" over Deep South Texas, which likely advects over the Rio Grande Plains. Therefore, maintain a medium to high chance (30-70%) of showers through the rest of this afternoon, then decrease to around 30-40% tonight over the southern half of the CWA. Instability is greatest south of the area, anticipate convection more in the form of showers than thunderstorms. Although most of the development will occur over the western half of the CWA, the mid to upper level westerly flow aloft will drift stratiform rain over portions of the eastern CWA. Enhanced moisture and PVA will linger around the Rio Grande and southern CWA Monday, just enough to warrant a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. The aforementioned low over Mexico will wash out and get replaced by a mid-level ridge Monday night, diminishing rain chances as PWATs fall below 2.0". && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts mid to late week. Ridging will settle back over the region during the Extended period bringing drier air aloft. However, daily low rain/storm chances will remain in the forecast through late week as there will still be enough low-level moisture around to combine with daytime instability to spark a few showers along the sea breeze. A mid-level trough will approach from the west over the weekend, however, the brunt of any notable forcing with this trough will remain well north of the region. It may aid in a low chance (<25%) of more widespread precipitation, though confidence is very low at this time. The main headlines through the extended period will once again be the heat. Warm temperatures and high dewpoints will lead to heat index values in the 105-114 range all week, with the warmest days being Wednesday through Friday. Heat Advisories may be required. The HeatRisk will be at Moderate to Major through the end of the work week. Therefore, heat related impacts will be possible. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Heavy showers over the Brush Country and steady rain around LRD will cause MVFR ceilings to stick around through at least the next few hours before breaks to VFR are possible later in the afternoon into early evening. However, I would not be surprised if MVFR ceilings persist through the entire time period with consistent convection around the area. MVFR ceilings also linger over VCT but expect conditions to improve to VFR here shortly. Light rain is advecting eastward across South Texas but greatest impacts will remain focused over the Brush Country and LRD. Light variable winds are expected through the forecast with patchy fog and MVFR ceilings potential again over ALI/VCT from 09-14Z. Rain chances diminish late tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A weak south to southeast flow will continue through Monday night. Onshore flow will then strengthen slightly to weak to moderate through next weekend. There is a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 92 76 92 / 30 10 0 10 Victoria 75 96 73 96 / 10 0 0 10 Laredo 74 88 75 94 / 50 40 10 20 Alice 75 95 74 96 / 30 20 0 10 Rockport 78 90 78 92 / 30 10 0 10 Cotulla 73 95 74 97 / 10 20 0 10 Kingsville 76 92 75 94 / 30 30 0 10 Navy Corpus 79 87 79 88 / 30 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF/94 LONG TERM....CLM/93 AVIATION...EMF/94